Politics: Yingluck’s government & her response to “The people vs the special interest”

/ July 28, 2011

The only way for Yingluck to survive long-term, is to build Thailand's democratic institutions

  • By Ranger, Thai Intel’s political journalist

Governing in Thailand, since the coup of 2006, has been difficult for every government. For example, several government close to Taksin, Yingluck’s brother, folded against the Thai establishment onslaught.

“The general question I have, is will Yingluck’s government follow the same path as her brother’s several government into the abyss?” said a foreign Thai political analyst to Matichon, a local newspaper here for the Thai intellect.

Most political analysts say, the answer to that question, depends on Yingluck’s government.

First, most analyst say, Yingluck, who took the Pheu Thai Party on an election landslide, is in the process of forming the government-with a great deal of speculation what the cabinet will look like, with many saying if the ministers are quality people, it would help Yingluck solidify the government’s position.

Secondly, most analyst have also said, that it is the political philosophy of the Yingluck government that needs focusing on-with some saying that Yingluck will carefully steer the government on a path of “Reconciliation” with the elite and yet others said that Yingluck, plans to lay the foundation to a changing Thailand towards democracy, liberty and justice.

And also as many analysts have said, the biggest challenge for Yingluck, is how complicated the situation will be internally- with Yingluck coming to power-backed by both, the Pheu Thai Party political machine, but also by the well oiled machine of the Red Shirts.

“The Red Shirts still poised as a threat to the Thai establishment and if they become part of Yingluck’s government, the Red Shirts could further alienate the establishment away,” says Pichit, a Thai university lecturer, to True Cable TV, recently.

All those, factors, like philosophy and cabinet post-the Pheu Thai Party and Red Shirts roots, is already being exploited and tested for weakness, by the local Thai press-that serves mostly the Thai establishment.

“Is Taksin behind the formation of the government and will he be running the government?” is the question the Yellow Shirts and its Manager Media is asking.

And yet, the dynamics of Thailand’s future, does not all depend on Yingluck’s government, but the opposition as well.

  • Here the Thai press, which have mostly supported the Democrat Party-have mostly lost their credibility with the public.  The Bangkok Post and Nation, are today, mostly a joke for so many Thais and foreigners, for example. Then the Yellow Shirts, were once a powerful protesting force with many supporters. But clearly now, most of that supporters were bused in by the Democrat Party-and repeat here will be difficult.
  • Then the Thai military, after years and years of being politicized, have very much lost cohesion. And the coup rationale, while always possible, is now a very weak proposition. Then the Democrat Party, is very much just a regional party of Southern Thailand people-void of any real impact-except in exposing future corruption. Then the business associations and academic, part of the elite rule of Thailand, is also facing strong opposition from opposing groups such as labor and farmers unions.

To put it bluntly here, after years and years of the elite rule of Thailand, they have failed the Thai people-and many Thais now remembers who did what. From this groups of Thais elite to that group of Thais elite-there is a long track record of ugly deeds-and the Thai people remembers.

So in summary here, the opposition to the Pheu Thai Party, can be said, with some caution-as being a weak opposition.

But fundamentally, the Thai people have spoken, and it is against the Thai establishment and for the people-meaning, the election was mainly about the direction of Thailand into the future-again, to continue under the elite rule or a move towards an open democracy.

Many observer of Thailand have told local press, that quote: “The mandate from the Thai people is overwhelming, and this time, the established elite will find it difficult to void the election result, without the risk of seeing Thailand going into a major crisis again.”

So in summary, according to some Thai analyst, there is a window of opportunity for Yingluck to excel in governing Thailand, where, one analyst told a Thai cable TV, quote:

  • “My suggestion to Yingluck, apart from keeping the different forces in Thailand balanced, is to keep focus on building Thailand’s Democratic foundation and institutions……That is the only way for Yingluck to remain in power in the long-term.”
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