by Frank, Pooky and Stingray this blog political, economics, and national security journalist
Taksin is in Cambodia and security is tight. The Bangkok Post reported that it will be a tense visit.
Taking the Thai government’s warning on the threat of life on Taksin, Cambodian security apparatus issued a statement that Taksin will be accorded security equal to World class leaders.
“We are very disturbed by what we are hearing from Bangkok,” said Cambodia’s security apparatus.
Members of the Thai government have responded, earlier, by saying that Taksin will not likely enter Cambodia, because Taksin may get assassinated in Cambodia.
While the prime minister of Thailand, three assignations attempts are on record-that investigations have had led to the Thai military as the culprit, however, the cases never progressed.
Taksin was toppled by a military coup in 2006. It had been documented that the Thai military convinced a key Taksin supporter to defect Taksin to form a government with Abhisit. Most global level human rights organizations have condemned the Abhisit government for gross violation of human rights and an anti-free expression position.
The Thai government strong position on Taksin visit to Cambodia stems from a fear that Taksin will use Cambodia to stage a come-back in Thailand. Taksin continued to enjoy widespread support with the most populous segment of the Thai population, which is from the lower-middle class downward.
Tearing Up MOU with Cambodia:
In response to AFP report that Taksin is in Cambodia, Thailand’s prime minister Abhisit have torn up the Thai Cambodian MOU on Thai Cambodia dispute resolution-a clear indication that he is willing to risk breaking Thai law that any agreement entered into with foreign countries, must be passed by the Thai parliament.
“The cabinet resolution is to terminate the agreement and all other agreements are pending,” said Abhisit to the Thai press.
The law clearly states the word “Enter”, however Abhisit said the termination is not “Entering” but a “Exiting.” However, several law experts have cautioned Abhisit that when an agreement is between “Two Parties” an “Exiting” tantamount to “Entering” into a new agreement.
And that “Entering” into a new agreement, must fallow the law. And while the MOU clearly does not state that any party can exit the agreement, the Thai government have raised other treaties to over-ride the dispute resolution agreement.
Thailand’s famous Diplomacy:
Thailand is known for this Abhisit-like style of diplomacy, and actually there is a very “Ugly” term for it.
MOU Abhisit’s Own Party Creation:
The resolution agreement was negotiated for 8 years, mostly, by Abhisit’s own party, the Democrat Party. Withing a few months after Taksin became Thailand’s prime minister, Taksin signed the agreement.
For the past few weeks, the Abhisit government have said the agreement was signed by Taksin and was created bt Taksin and Hun Sen, in an attempt for both parties to “Cheat” their respected countrymen. The agreement covers a World Bank estimate to be a rich oil and gas reserve.
The government has now saying, however, that Taksin, as the former head of Thailand, to be advising Cambodia, will put Thailand’s interest at risk. At risk is actually a mapping of the ocean floor, to decide a decimal line, which is technical.
Extradition vs Economist:
Meanwhile, about 300 hundred top Cambodians economist are scheduled to meet to listen to Taksin vision on the Global economy and Cambodia’s place in it. Cambodia also has very ambitious plans to develop an island along the Singapore model, and Taksin has told this blog that the island development will get most of his energy, which with Taksin close relationship with Singapore, Brunei and the Philipines, including Middle Eastern business interest, all are expected to become major partners.
“I really don’t want to enter the Thai politics, but the people want me, but for now my interest will be in business,” said Taksin to this blog.
The Thai government have also said an extradition process to get Taksin back to Thailand for jail term will be started.
Cambodia have said it will not accord the Abhisit government’s extradition treaty, as Taksin is a political refugee, who had to face un-just Thai courts. The latest poll on the subject of Thai justice, saw most Thais saying that the Thai justice system is un-just, not fair and have a double standard.
At the same time, the Abhisit government have “Insisted Cambodia Stick to Agreement” and said that it will raise agreements between Thailand and Cambodia on extradition, to get Taksin back to Thailand. The process has been started, with the latest being a threat to Cambodia that Thailand will ask the INTERPOL to arrest Taksin in Cambodia.
Taksin enjoys widespread global support, while the Thai foreign minister, under investigations for terrorist activity, had used diplomatic means to pressure other countries to reject Taksin, but have not succeeded. For a time, Taksin resided in the UK, however, the UK revoked Taksin visa, and refused to give Taksin a hearing on political refugee status. Widely believe with Taksin supported press, to be the reason for the termination of visa is significant UK’s business interest under negotiation.
Trade on the Verge of Stoppage:
Meanwhile the Thai Chambers of commerce head said if the border between Thailand and Cambodia is shut-off, by Thailand, he hoped it will be only a short-term because the border trade involves mostly Thai exports to Cambodia and that Cambodia have already started to turn to the Vietnam border. The border trade is about US$2 billion.
“Thais investments in Cambodia are mostly joint venture with Cambodians and they are protected, however new investments may be at risk,” said the head.
At stake for Cambodia, mainly is the income from gambling establishments that draws a great many Thais to the border area. However, many of those are Thai-Camboidian joint venture.
Bangkok’s Intelligence Community’s Opinion:
“Abhisit has tied Thailand’s interest to the interest of the system he represents, and that is nothing new and we have anticipated everything that is occurring. The question we are looking for answers now is Taksin’s actions. If left between Taksin, Abhisit and Hun Sen, we anticipate a period of cooling off by all parties, for consolidation efforts. But in Thailand you have instigators like the Yellow Shirt, and that complicates the equation, because it looks like a race between the Yellow Shirt and Abhisit for support and the ammunition there is raising the stakes with Taksin and Hun Sen,” said a western intelligence source to this blog.