ASEAN Defense: USA budget deal equate “China Military Dominance”

/ August 1, 2011
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  • By Stingray, Thai Intel’s national security journalist

The USA budget cuts will likely diminish the USA military presence in the Asia Pacific region, and thus ASEAN, the regional grouping, must step up its national security role, argues a Thai Intel’s USA national security source.

Leading up to the last-minute USA debt extension deal and the related budget cuts in USA Congress-for weeks there have been rumors of a USA cutbacks on new aircraft carriers and submarines development and deployment.

That news was undoubtedly noticed by Beijing, and yet Beijing official news agency, released a statement, potentially countering that USA talks, that China‘s current aircraft carrier, is only there to serve as a research and training platform for China’s navy.

But it is not just aircraft carriers and submarines cutbacks in the USA, already, while details of the USA budget cuts is not knows, news is that there will deep cuts in defense and national security.

  • The Pacific Waters is undoubtedly, one of the glob’s most important trade route and also resource rich, where also, epic Naval battle took place as recently as WW2.

But what does that Chinese statement on using its aircraft carrier for training and research mean?

This is the question Thai Intel posed to a friend, who is a former high-ranking USA national security expert.

  • “It means, China is preparing to make the jump up into more advance platform when the opportunity is in place,” said Jim, Thai Intel’s source to Thai Intel, in this morning’s rushed communication-after Thai Intel heard of the potential deep cuts in USA military spending.

Jim did not say much, other than that however, but he said the USA embassy here in Thailand is “Extremely” concern.

“A growing China and Thailand military ties appear to be a deliberate policy of the Chinese and they are making open statements about it,” said Jim. He said, for example, the past year, China’s news outlets have been headlining reports of “China and Thailand forge closer military ties.”

  • Jim said that Chinese push in Thailand, may weaken ASEAN.

“ASEAN will increasingly have to play a counter-balance role to China, especially on the peripherals,……The USA would provide the core……..China is reading the game and is trying to get to the core,” said Jim.

Naval expert have long feared an emerging China in the Pacific Waters. That fear, is not limited to ASEAN countries, but the USA as well, even with the USA Hawaiian Senator, calling for the USA to not forget about protecting the state from potential Chinese aggression.

But China’s diplomatic offense in the Southeast Asian region, with its grouping of ASEAN countries, is meeting some strong objection, particularly from Indonesia, Malaysia and Philippines. Indonesia, for example, have made calls on the USA to continue to play a key military role in the ASEAN region and the Philippines, is reportedly, in secret talks with the Pentagon for a new series of military assistance.

Other than the Philippines eyeing stronger military capabilities, both Indonesia and Malaysia, are on a fast track to acquire advance military equipments-with Singapore already, long, sported close air surveillance agreement with the USA.

But Thailand, currently, ranked as the closest of USA ally, outside of NATO, continues to be a wild card in the ASEAN region, that have already seen China developing close ties to Mayanmar and Cambodia.

“Their diplomatic offense in the ASEAN region is economic lead, where the USA is becoming less important,” said Jim, pointing out that after the USA lost the Vietnam War, there was a major shift in the USA posture in the entire region-as much of ASEAN was seen a domino ready to fall under Vietnamese communist dominance.

  • Jim said, the USA may decide to counter balance China growing power in the Pacific by stressing India, Japan, Indonesia, Australia and S.Korea.

However, as the former prime minister of Singapore said, quote: “In Southeast Asia, the country to watch is Thailand. When Thailand makes a move, the move sets the tone for the entire region.”

While that statement was made decades ago, and Thailand currently, is involved mostly with internal problems, the statement may continue to serve notice to national security experts globally, especially, after Thailand just had an election, that sees the forces of democracy, liberty and justice-winning against the old establishment rule of Thailand.

  • The Following is from the Washington Times:

China muscling U.S. aside in Thailand

By Richard S. Ehrlich – Special to The Washington Times

BANGKOK — The United States is worried about China’s growing influence in Thailand, as Washington’s prestige appears to be fading with America’s oldest South Asian ally.

Former U.S. Ambassador Eric John warned of China’s assertive diplomacy in a confidential cable before he left his post in Bangkok in September.

Mr. John pointed out “China’s sustained, successful efforts to court Southeast Asia and Thailand” in his report to Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Thai “government officials and academics sympathetic to the U.S. see the dynamic of China rising — and the U.S. receding — likely to continue, unless the U.S. takes more vigorous action to follow-up with sustained efforts to engage on issues that matter to the Thai [people] and the region, not just what is perceived as the U.S.’s own agenda,” Mr. John said in the cable released by the anti-secrecy website WikiLeaks.

Thailand and the United States established diplomatic relations in 1833.

Mr. John also said China is competing strongly with the United States on the cultural front, noting “many Chinese diplomats [who] are fully fluent” in the Thai language.

Chinese Ambassador Guan Mu is one of those Thai-speaking diplomats. He sent 17 years of his diplomatic career in Thailand, rising to the post of ambassador in 2009. Mr. Mu frequently appears on Thai television.

Mr. John, who speaks Korean and Vietnamese, sent three years in Bangkok; and the new U.S. ambassador, Kristie Kenney, who speaks French and Spanish, arrived in January.

China also has marshaled a parade of high-level visitors to Thailand in recent years.

In 2009, alone, Premier Wen Jiabao and Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi visited Bangkok for a meetings with Asian leaders, while Defense Minister Gen. Liang Guanglie came for military talks.

Thai Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn visited China five times that year, while Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya also held talks in Beijing.

China also avoids criticizing Thailand.

In 2006, when Thailand’s military staged a coup and toppled the prime minister, Washington suspended $24 million in military assistance and restricted high-level meetings.

China described the coup as Bangkok’s internal affair, gave Thailand $49 million in military aid and increased the number of exchange students at Chinese and Thai military staff colleges. Beijing also persuaded the Thai military to participate in yearly, small-scale special forces joint exercises.

Last year, Chinese and Thai special forces held a 15-day joint antiterrorism drill, and more than 100 Chinese marines from an amphibious special warfare held exercises with their Thai counterparts.

But China has sold inferior weaponry to Thailand, making some Thai military officials wary of becoming dependent on Chinese supplies.

Thailand’s incoming prime minister, Yingluck Shinawatra, appears eager to expand business ties with China. She favors a Chinese proposal to construct high-speed trains and replace Thailand’s decrepit railway.

In January, Chinese investors began building a $1.5 billion China City Complex near Bangkok to manufacture clothing, household items and other goods.

Chinese migrants have been settling in Thailand for generations, arriving through Laos and across the Mekong River or, more often, by sea from China’s southeast coastal towns to Bangkok.

Today many ethnic Chinese hold some of Thailand’s highest political, economic, military and cultural positions.

Chinese faces, fashions and symbols are promoted in Thai advertisements and pop culture as badges of financial success.

Several top Thai corporations, meanwhile, are trying to make profits by investing in China and hoping to copy the success of Thailand’s Charoen Pokphand (CP) Group, which opened a chicken-processing plant in China in 1979.

The CP Groupt also invested in huge supermarkets, entertainment complexes and other industries.

Thai exporters use Bangkok’s port to ship goods along the Gulf of Thailand and South China Sea into Hong Kong.

China, however, produces much larger and more diversified foods for export into Thailand, threatening local producers.

“People in Thailand are worried,” one former Thai diplomat told The Washington Times. “China’s economy is so big, and ours is so small, that we cannot compete with all the Chinese things being sold here.”

Another official expressed alarm over China’s growing economic clout.

“China will own us!” she declared. “Thailand will be like a vassal of China.”

Both asked not to be identified so they could talk candidly about China’s increasing influence in Thailand.

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