By Terry/Tavivoot

Extreme Right: The Thai internal security apparatus is linking Thailand’s most respected person with the disputed territory with Cambodia, saying that this highest person has visited the disputed area many times and showed great interest in it, right ahead of the running of the Thai national anthem on TV at 18.00.

Situation Analysis: Confirms that the extreme right have zero interest in moderating its views and is preping the public for potential war with Cambodia.

Political Reform: The head of Thailand’s political reform efforts said today that if politics continued on the present course, he prefers another coup.

Situation Analysis: Confirms that the political reform efforts is not in the hands of a democratic minded individual.

Press freedom: The government is beginning to criticize Thailand’s traditional press openly and repeatedly for running many stories that criticized the government.

Situation Analysis: Confirms that the current government is anti-press freedom and is not open to criticism.

Red Shirt Activity: Thaienews, the key communication channel for the democratic leaning reds, have startd to publish strategic papers on the reds struggle in Thailand-and followed it up with a speech by a key red leader saying to be prepare for a long term struggle.

Situation Analysis: Confirms that the objective of the reds is a fundamental change to Thai society and not political.

A bright and beautiful future lies ahead for Abisit and the right wing-but reaching it-may mean some re-thinking

We would like to say thanks to Bangkok Post, True TV and Vietnam News

By Terry/Tavivoot

The following are what some are saying about Thailand and the risk and opportunities that lies ahead.

• Today a senior CP head went on True TV and said China was able to get its economy on track for one reason only-and that is stimulating its grassroots. He also said the opportunity for Thailand in a fast recovering China is in getting China to invest in Thailand and Thai export of fruits and vegetables.
• Today also, Bangkok Post ran a story quoting a global leading marketing research unit-and it said Thailand, with the lowest consumers confidence in Asia that is improving bit by bit, needs to focus on two things-government efficiency and political stability.
• Today also, Vietnam News, said that the Vietnam government is going to start “Establishing The Vietnam Brand” for its agricultural products sector.
• Today also, thai tourism private sector said the government stimulus package is slow in implementation, the government needs to increase its assistant to the industry, and that Thailand has a very bad image problem.

Giving due credit due-all of the above, were things Thaksin addressed in a serious way-from grassroots, to FTA with China to establishing a strong Thai Brand, to a total revamp of government and related budgeting and finance process.

Obviously it is Abisit now holding the helm of Thailand-and the messages are clear enough where to focus. But is Abisit on the right track?

• There has been no serious sign of focus on reforming the Thai political system or appeasement with the opposition.
• There has been nothing on focusing on the grassroots at a level that Thaksin did or what China did.
• There has been nothing on attracting Chinese investments to Thailand on a top level and continuous efforts.
• There has been nothing on building the Thai brand-instead the Thai Brand is being hurt greatly by the political agenda of limiting free press.
• There has been nothing, that is significant, on helping the Thai tourism industry.

Government of the rich, takes care of the rich-and in business it is about greed and profit

By Terry/Tavivoot

How will this war on spread impact your wallet-well you decide. But like would it not be great if lets say the spread is narrowed and savings was like 3% and lending was 5%?

The Spread:

Check out KriugThai Bank, the policy arm of the Thai Finance Ministry and under close wraps of the Thai central bank, and see that rate spread-with the savings rate for people is about 1% and the lending rate is about 7% (http://www.ktb.co.th/th/main/).

At the same time the government is blasting away how its Strong Thailand Bond, a really nothing amount compared to the amount of business banks are doing, with a 4% savings rates is doing Thailand a great favor. How strong is the demand for higher rates, the Bangkok Post reports about 200,000 people were left empty handed.

So from Krung Thai Bank rates, it looks like a pretty hefty spread doesn’t it? Well Thaksin also thinks it is.

Like would it not be great if lets say the spread is narrowed and savings was like 3% and lending was 5%?

Thaksin Wants it Narrowed:

Thaksin just went on community radio and said the government should get the banks to narrow their lending and savings spread. Community radio reach the grass roots people who are at the bottom of the Thai economic pyramid.

So Thaksin must be trying to get their favor, by bringing up an issue important to them-because who else is listening to community radios? And this probably mean that those Thais at the bottom of the pyramid are being hurt by the banks.

Well the message came out just about the same time the government just sold its “Strong Thailand Bond,” stressing over and over and over, that the bond will be made available equally to all Thais.

On TV, every channel went interviewing people who bought the bonds and that said in sum, “The greatest thing paying a very high interest rate.”

What The Bottom of the Pyramid Wants:

But what of the poor who live month by month or a little bit better than that, and usually end up borrowing from loan sharks? No there is no way they can even dream of saving with those very “Pay very High Interest rates” of the government bonds.

These people at the bottom of the economic pyramid depend on the grace of banks to lend to them and very humbly accept whatever the rate the banks give them. And whatever savings they may have, goes into the bank at whatever rates the banks are kind enough to give them.

So Thaksin touched on a subject that communicates his well intention-for whatever reason-to the those at the bottom of the economic pyramid.

Did the central bank listen-since Thaksin speaks for millions and millions of Thai at the bottom of the pyramid?

Well what does the Thai central bank say to Thaksin? Well today the central bank gave a bunch of statements-maybe it is unrelatedand coincidental-but both was in the news on the same day.

So what about the Thai central bank?

The Thai central bank can be as nutty as a mad hatter and to get a sence of that just visit http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/ to see the extreme level of  twisting by a mad hatter in action.

So in Thai Rath http://www.thairath.co.th/ print version, it went writing about all that statement the central bank made. The central bank talked about a lot of things-but the central bank said  in sum that it is doing the right thing.

One of that right thing, for a very long time now, is saying that while in pure numbers, the savings and lending spread of Thai commercial banks, while it looks big, in fact if one considers this and that, it actually is very small. The mad hatter even compared the pure number with the rest of the region and said, “See, Thai banks are not greedy.”

Well, if you actually follow the actual bank performances-which is still great as everyone is hurting badly-right there in the statement are the facts that in sum-expense from interest paid grew lets say 5%, and the income from interest earned grew 20%.

In answering this question, that seems to mean banks are greedy, the mad hatter said, “Its because the bank have been putting money into bonds.”

So there you have it-banks are not lending but putting the money into bonds, and whatever lending to the public they do, they are making a killing with the spread-because believe it or not anyone who walks into the bank just sees it right there on the wall the big fat spread.

Like really, where is that little bank spread? Because when I save its 1% and when I borrow its 7%.

Why Should Economist Worry

But what is this matter to economist and economic planners-and even those in NGO community? Well in much of the developing world-Micro Credit is important because it drives entrepreneurship.

From Individual Loans comes  Micro Credit comes Small and Medium Enterprises (SME) that provides all sort of healthy things to the economy. making it available at not too greedy a price, helps spread these small engines of entrepreneurship.

Well wake up people, because globally-micro credit is the in thing-and nobody is slapping the type of spread on it the way Thailand is. Check out the microcredit importance at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microcredit

Am I also too stupid to be in Thailand?

by Terry/Tavivoot

The Poor: Too Stupid to Vote?

The right wing in Thailand doesn’t want to reform the constitution and make Thailand’s democratic process pure, clean and representative. But they want to make less representative and more about appointment. That is because they say, “The poor are too stupid to vote.”

But yes, it is true vote buying in Thailand’s rural area is rampant and the educational level is below those in Bangkok.

How bad have things gotten in Thailand? Well not too long ago, a Mercedes had an accident with a motorcycle on Sukhumvit area, the richest districe in Bangkok. And the guy driving the Mercedes jumped out of the car-and hit the motorcycle guy-and said, “You are a low class bastard who is too stupid to drive in Bangkok.”

When the police came to investigate the acident, the Mercedes guy told the police, “Don’t mind him, he is just a poor stupid bastard.”

That incident came right about the same time the righ wing were propagating “heavily” their preference of giving less power to the lower classes of Thai society-by focusing on having politicians be appointed not elected.

The Right Wing: Too Stupid to Govern?

Well, Thailand now is hit by the epidemic and has the highest death rate in Asia. But for months and months the current government of the right wing said this epidemic is nothing big-and didn’t do much about it.

Now that things have gotten out hand and health officials say the epidemic will likely kill some 2,000 Thais in the next few years-the government of the right wing just organized a major gathering of Thailand’s best health care people, like doctors and such-to find a proper solution.

Well better late than never.

But like that poor guy driving the motorcycle that was hit by the Mercedes and then called too stupid to drive, at that big righ wing organized health care meet, several doctors walked out in protest.

“This government is too stupid to govern,” said one doctor, totally pissed off, on the way out of the meet.

Pollster say their chance of reaching anyone is the same.

“Obviously, the ABAC polling methodology might also be bit suspect, or maybe no one in Isaan answered the phone when the pollsters called,” says Nganadeeleg, a neutral blogger-who trash both Abisit and Thaksin-about ABAC finding that 70% of E-Sarn people supports Abisit.

By Terry/Tavivoot

Polls Go Ballistic

Lots and lots of polls have been coming out lately. That is you can always count on polls to go ballistics when society is in turmoil. But some polls seem real and other seem real crazy. Or is it really about people having a difficult time accepting the poll?

Nganadeeleg, a blogger who helps keep me real, said that Thai polls can be wrong.  He says like with the poll saying 70% of E-Sarn people supports Abisit is just “not right.”

Well how can that be, because pollster uses a statistical correct method don’t they?

So I called Pong, a friend who does marketing research for one of Thailand’s biggest conglomerate and asked him does he trust the Thai poll results. And he said he never trust anything in Thailand unless he did it himself. So I asked him why was that-is it because Thais are un-trustworthy?

Professional?

And he simply said it is about the level of professionalism.

He said, around the world, the most respected polls are a business that needs to make profit-and so they need to be right. But he said, in Thailand, it is sort of like a public relation thing for the schools and universities.

But Thai universities are highly politicized units?

Pong said there has bee a great deal of debate in the industry on the subject and what he will say is only that at his market research unit, “I put new people through a very tough course on ethics and objectivity.”

Poll Wasting Their Times?

“Look Terry, E-Sarn is about 30%, South 20%, Central 20%, North 20%. The problem is that the 40% of South and Central are all for the right wing. Then the 50% of E-Sarn and North, you get 40% for the reds and 10% for the right wing. So when a pollster goes and ask the Thai across the country, it will be for the right wing.”

So I asked him why the poll says 70% of E-Sarn people support Abisit-because that is clearly wrong for any person with reason. I mean did someone bought off the poll?

“No necessary Terry, but again it is about the level of professionalism. Polling is about not just random calls to people but it is also about the right sample group. Most pollster in Thailand is great at random sampling, but horrible at getting it right in hitting the right sampling group.”

What he meant is that the population distribution of the people of E-Sarn isn’t like in Bangkok-so it is really difficult to get a real representation of people’s opinion. “I trust the polls when it comes to Bangkok, but for the country, never.”

Poll and Politics

So we started talking about politics-which is very different from poll results.

“Terry, poll is like a popularity vote if it is done correctly. Politics is about a lot of things more than that so don’t expect the Thai poll to tell you much. Like look at the past and you just see how wrong they can be all the time and how different Thai polls results can be, even when they go out and do the same thing.”

So should Kasit, Thailand’s foreign minister being investigated for terrorism, resign because 60% said in polls that Kasit should resign?

“Well if the polls are correct 70% of the people still wants Abisit to stay on, and so that is pretty strong and so my guess is that Abisit is leveraging his support to keep Kasit in place.”

In common language, it means Abisit is willing to take a few point hit to his 70% support to keep Kasit goin.

But what of the Thai political process-are the right wing hurting themselves by wanting less representation, but more appointment of politicians-from a pollster point of view?

“It depends really, but if Thai politics is based on popular vote, the South and Central will be keep the Democrat and Chart Thai Pattana pretty much in control of Thailand.”

But is Poll Useful?

“Many times they get it right-but then you start counting on them to get it right. Then you just simply trust them, and that is when it gets dangerous because you loose your voice and become a subject of the poll results. That is a big mistake because you start to do things according to the poll results, rather than what you might do otherwise.”

So who is right on the money when it comes to polls in Thailand?

“Nobody, but on politics the closest is the poll by the Thai police. I don’t know how they do it, but maybe they ask all those police all over Thailand what they see going on. It is not random or statistically based but they get a very good cover of the sampling group. But then they may twist it on purpose for political reason.”

Texas politics and economis system makes it the performance star of America-and is leaps and bound ahead of the East Asia Economic Model or the Thai political model at that.

http://www.economist.com/

We would like to say thank you to the Economist for another cutting-edge research

By Terry/Tavivoot

The Bad News:

Oh my goodness, Abisit is borrowing and spending like mad dispite his repeated words that he all about sufficiency, and looks like tax is on the way up because Korn, the Thai Finance Minister just said today that he is seeking tax hike. “Higher Tax” in an economic slump that is leaving the globe weak for many years?

On top of it about 400,000 million baht in investment are stuck in about 30 court cases over pollution. And according to Thai Rath economic team, about 200,000 Small and medium enterprises (SME) are also on the verge of collapse.

And god is politics hurting Thailand in every direction-as Thais are now totally polarized into fraction that hates each other guts. The occupation of the Thai main airport alone, by one of those polarized fraction, cost a Thai central bank estimate damage of US$5 billion.

What on earth is Thailand to do? Because it looks the East Asia Development Model has finally come to a dead end. And Thai politics is at a dead end also.

The Abisit Solution:

Well you can’t blame Abisit for running around the globe trying to get businesses to invest in Thailand. Foreign investment means jobs, a good balance of payment position, and advancement of Thailand’s industry in general.

So don’t blame the Thai-Joint-Chamber of Commerce when they went to Abisit and told him to relax Thailand’s environmental regulations-because again right now about 400,000 million baht in both Thai and foreign investments are stuck in courts in over 30 cases-bought about by Thais hurt by pollution (see http://www.thairath.co.th/ for the whole list of what the joint chamber wants from the government)

Not to give credit or take anything away from Thaksin, but Thaksin went both ways in targeting both investments and putting a great deal of resources in Thailand’s small to medium enterprises (SME)-as a way to get Thailand out of an economic black hole about 10 years ago.

Politics wise, Abisit, while telling everyone that he is on the road of bringing all Thais together as on, under one united country, can’t even expell a suspect right wing terrorist from the government-and totally alienating other fractions.

Abisit Faces Some Bad Luck:

But unfortunately for Abisit-who is in the process of copying of much of what Thaksin did-except for as strong a focus on SME-Thailand has just about progressed to the point that people are being hurt by the pollution the Thai industrialization spills out.

If anyone can remember, not too long ago, the people who live near Thailand’s showcase of industrealization and petrochem industry-the Eastern Seaboard Zone-just took to the street in protest because their children were getting sick for unknown reason-that later proved to be all because of the pollution the zone was putting into the air.

If you think that is just about the concentration at that zon causing a problem in an isolated idea, think again. Recently a steel mill wanted to put up a steel plant way out no-where in the middle of no-where-and the people still didn’t want it there.

How ridiculous or serious the issue has gotten? Thailand, a power hungry country, seeing everyone in the region going for nuclear plant, gave up trying to locate it in Thailand because no matter where-people just didn’t want it. So Thailand went to Indonesia and asked if Thailand could rent an isolated Indonesian island to put up the plant.

So what is the solution to Thailand now?

Stop hoping that foreign investments will come in? Because even as Abisit is going around telling people to invest-there is no hiding the news that in Thailand, pollution is a major concern with the Thai people.

I mean it looks like the East Asian Development Model of export led or even import substitution through industrialization is out. Apart from Thaksin being right on the SME angle, what to do then?

And politically, well it is really a dead end as well here in Thailand. What Thailand is, is just a time bomb waiting to explode again.

A New Overall Development Model

The solution really-is in the overall direction of development Thailand might  take-economically and politically.

I am a strong advocate of sufficiency-but to tell people to go back to the farms and live there just isn’t what the Thai people of this modern day wants anymore. And in fact, sufficiency is about something much more advance than using it that way.

(see http://advancesufficiency.wordpress.com/ for what sufficiency really means)

So again what is the solution?

Its more than better environmental planning and muddling through in the current Thai-Style democratic process.

As the Joint-Thai-Chamber-of Commerce indicated-they are ready to dump good environmental planning-taking Thailand back to the starting point of having a lousy environmental planning. And politics, well just thinking reforming the Thai democratic process is getting angry shouts from the right wing fraction.

Go West Young Man!

The following is a comparison between the California model and the Texas model from the Economist. And it could provide some insight to Thailand’s key economic planners.

But then again if Thailand key economic planners think Thailand’s future truly lies in telling Thais to head back to the farms or throw away their hope for a better life materialistically, under a kiss-ass to Sufficiency deal, what can I say-except take a trip to the mall and wake up to reality already.

And if the Thai powers at be think the political road Thailand is on is the right way to go, well just check your own pulse because it is beating very fast-a sign that you are lying to yourself. Like really, is it extreme fear that have invoked the emergency decree to cover an entire island for a regional meeting.

America’s Future

The Economist is in America doing deep research on America

By The Economist

AMERICA’S recent history has been a relentless tilt to the West—of people, ideas, commerce and even political power. California and Texas, the nation’s two biggest states, are the twin poles of the West, but very different ones. For most of the 20th century the home of Silicon Valley and Hollywood has been the brainier, sexier, trendier of the two: its suburbs and freeways, its fads and foibles, its marvellous miscegenation have spread around the world. Texas, once a part of the Confederacy, has trailed behind: its cliché has been a conservative Christian in cowboy boots, much like a certain recent president. But twins can change places. Is that happening now?

It is easy to find evidence that California is in a funk (see article). At the start of this month the once golden state started paying creditors, including those owed tax refunds, business suppliers and students expecting grants, in IOUs. California’s governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, also said that the gap between projected outgoings and income for the current fiscal year has leapt to a horrible $26 billion. With no sign of a new budget to close this chasm, one credit agency has already downgraded California’s debt. As budgets are cut, universities will let in fewer students, prisoners will be released early and schemes to protect the vulnerable will be rolled back.

Plenty of American states have budget crises; but California’s illustrate two more structural worries about the state. Back in its golden age in the 1950s and 1960s, it offered middle-class people, not just techy high-fliers, a shot at the American dream—complete with superb schools and universities, and an enviable physical infrastructure. These days California’s unemployment rate is running at 11.5%, two points ahead of the national average. In such Californian cities as Fresno, Merced and El Centro, jobless rates are higher than in Detroit. Its roads and schools are crumbling. Every year, over 100,000 more Americans leave the state than enter it.

The second worry has to do with dysfunctional government. No state has quite so many overlapping systems of accountability or such a gerrymandered legislature. Ballot initiatives, the crack cocaine of democracy, have left only around a quarter of its budget within the power of its representative politicians. (One reason budget cuts are inevitable is that voters rejected tax increases in a package of ballot measures in May.) Not that Californian government comes cheap: it has the second-highest top level of state income tax in America (after Hawaii, of all places). Indeed, high taxes, coupled with intrusive regulation of business and greenery taken to silly extremes, have gradually strangled what was once America’s most dynamic state economy. Chief Executive magazine, to take just one example, has ranked California the very worst state to do business in for each of the past four years.

By contrast, Texas was the best state in that poll. It has coped well with the recession, with an unemployment rate two points below the national average and one of the lowest rates of housing repossession. In part this is because Texan banks, hard hit in the last property bust, did not overexpand this time. But as our special report this week explains, Texas also clearly offers a different model, based on small government. It has no state capital-gains or income tax, and a business-friendly and immigrant-tolerant attitude. It is home to more Fortune 500 companies than any other state—64 compared with California’s 51 and New York’s 56. And as happens to fashionable places, some erstwhile weaknesses now seem strengths (flat, ugly countryside makes it easier for Dallas-Fort Worth to expand than mountain-and-sea-locked LA), while old conservative stereotypes are being questioned: two leading contenders to be Houston’s next mayor are a black man and a white lesbian. Texas also gets on better with Mexico than California does.

American conservatives have seized on this reversal of fortune: Arthur Laffer, a Reaganite economist, hails the Texan model over the Gipper’s now hopelessly leftish home. Despite all this, it still seems too early to cede America’s future to the Lone Star state. To begin with, that lean Texan model has its own problems. It has not invested enough in education, and many experts rightly worry about a “lost generation” of mostly Hispanic Texans with insufficient skills for the demands of the knowledge economy. Now immigration is likely to reconvert Texas from Republican red to Democratic blue; Latinos may justly demand a bigger, more “Californian” state to educate them and provide them with decent health care. But Texas could then end up with the same over-empowered public-sector unions who have helped wreck government in California.

Second, it has never paid to bet against a state with as many inventive people as California. Even if Hollywood is in the dumps (see article), it still boasts an unequalled array of sunrise industries and the most agile venture-capital industry on the planet; there is no prospect of the likes of Google decamping from Mountain View for Austin, though many start-ups have. The state also has an awesome ability to reinvent itself—as it did when its defence industry collapsed at the end of the cold war. Perhaps the rejection of tax increases will “starve the beast” and promote structural reform. A referendum on a new primaries system could end its polarised politics. Mr Schwarzenegger’s lazy governorship could come to be seen not as the great missed opportunity, but as the spur for reform.

The truth is that both states could learn from each other. Texas still lacks California’s great universities and lags in terms of culture. California could adopt not just Texas’s leaner state, but also its more bipartisan approach to politics and its more welcoming attitude towards Mexico. There is no perfect model of government: it is America’s genius to have 50 public-policy laboratories competing to find out what works best—just as it is the relentless competition of clever new firms from Portland to Pittsburgh that will pull the country out of its current gloom. But, to give Texas some credit and serve as a warning to Mr Schwarzenegger’s heir, at this moment America’s two most futuristic states look a lot more like equals than ever before.

Risky business going into a global forum with a potential terrorist suspect.

 

By Terry/Tavivoot

God I hope the ASEAN meet goes off well. A great deal is depending on it-like the reputation of Thailand as a whole.

“Yes” the Thai right wing is pinning the hope that the meet will solidify their position in Thailand. On the other side it is freedom, liberty, democracy and justice on the line. But how on earth did Thailand get to this point and “whatever” it is just plain bad news for everyone and literally speaking-Thailand ends up loosing.

So now with Abisit declaring that the ASEAN meet is off-limits to protesters-no matter what their rationale is-with an blanketed emergency decree, one just knows that the red shirt, a large group of democratic-Thaksin oriented dissident, will find that ban “un-acceptable.”

Well to make things really worse, Thailand has been aligning very strongly with the Burmese military junta in the past few weeks-with all sort of official statement.

And you know just what the Burmese dissident thinks of Thailand right now.

And you know what the Thai dissident thinks of Thailand right about now.

The reality of the fact is that both the Thai and Burmese dissident have a very strong global constituency. And these have been very active in protest at both Thai and Burmese embassies.

So you just can sort of imagine a nightmare scenario happening. Like the Thai and Burmese getting together and raise hell during the ASEAN meet-globally.

I really hope the Abisit government get this message of warning and try to do something about it. Please for god sakes-make some room for Thai dissidence to live in peace. And really, is there any point in making strong statements supporting the Burmese junta right before the ASEAN meet?

jai's influence on the global academic circle is increasing

 

http://thaienews.blogspot.com/

By Terry/Tavivoot

On one side is Thailand’s aspiration to be the education hub of Southeast Asia-and they just announced a major spending plan to achieve that goal. And Thailand today is literally full of international-linked colleges.

On the other hand is Thailand’s right wing position-and leading global academia circle trashing Thailand-as the home of right wingers.

What goes on the hearts and minds of teachers and professors that teach at those many international-linked colleges in Thailand-is a big question mark.  

But the other day, Thaienews ran a story on how a key professor at a leading university outside Thailand, presented his paper on Thai Politics at Thailand’s own Chula University-and the professor pretty much trashed the right wingers in Thailand.

Now another famous professor on the global level has pretty much trashed the Thai right wing-and Abisit in particular.

Well as many know, Chula, has become the key center point where righ wing ideology is formulated and spread across the Thai academic circle-like believe it or not but this best university in Thailand has actually ban books-like the book by Jai Unkpakorn, who is a leading Thai social-democrat.

Jai was a professor there at Chula, and because of his criticism of the right wing-the university bought a great deal of pressure on Jai. Jai finally had it with Thailand and exiled himself to the UK.

Well Jai is widely respected in the global academic community because of his NGO-like activities, his commitment against military involvement in politics, his commitment to democracy, and because of his famous father Puey Ungpakorn-the father of Thailand’s professional and progressive civil servant.

Not too long ago, when Abist went to visit the UK at his old university, Oxford or something like that, Abist set up a question and answer session-obviously to propagate the righ wing position of his government. But right there at the session, was Jai questioning Abisit.

Then you start to have other cutting edge university worldwide like Stanford and Berkley professors-starting to lecture on Thailand as well-many greatly influenced by Jai-and some actually are quoting Jai in their lectures and many quote Jai’s book right there in their research and opinion papers.

What is the bottom-line for Thailand in this case-well in the battle for the minds of educated people globally-the Thai right wing is loosing the battle. How will this directly impact Thailand-well I will leave the right wingers to do the research on this one.

But it might have a direct impact on Thailand’s reputation as an education hub. But then again Thailand may turn into an education hub for “New Age” right wing thinking.

 

The following is just one of many article on how, globally, Thailand is being pretty much trashed for being a heaven of the righ wing.

 

Thai Politics: Back to Normal?

Monday, June 8, 2009

by Kevin Hewison

Kevin Hewison is Director of the Carolina Asia Center and a Professor in the Department of Asian Studies at theUniversity of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

Normal doesn’t necessarily mean democratic

Thailand’s Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has recently jetted to Hong Kong and South Korea,assuring investors that Thailand’s politics are back to normal.

But in Abhisit’s Thailand, normality means a depressing slide back to the past political configurations that can be called Thai-style democracy. This is a system where politicians, parties and parliament are made weak and where real power resides with traditional, repressive and hierarchical institutions.

Abhisit’s assurances follow several years of political turmoil that began in 2005 with a protest movement to oust then Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and was punctuated by the 2006 putsch that sent Thaksin packing, increasing street violence, the occupation of Bangkok’s airports by the royalist People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) and the army’s mid-April crackdown on anti-government protests in Bangkok.

 These institutions have provided Thailand’s “political stability” in the past: the monarchy, military and the bureaucracy. Each of these institutions came under pressure from a developing parliamentary system.

 With Thaksin as premier, the concentration of political and economic power in his hands and his obvious appeal to the poorest and weakest classes challenged the conservative consensus that concentrated political power with the conservative elite.

 There is now ample evidence that the conservatives who have long considered themselves the country’s rightful rulers are now back in charge. Prime Minister Abhisit and his Democrat Party-led coalition are merely stage-managing this comeback for the conservatives.

The military now provides a protective shell for the conservative re-establishment and for Abhisit’s government. The troops have intervened twice during the years of political turmoil. The first was in making the 2006 coup. The second was when General Anupong ordered troops tosave the government by putting down April’s uprising by red-shirted Thaksin supporters and other government opponents.

Getting back to normal in Thailand means a powerful and political military. It also means that parliament becomes a place of shifting loyalties. Coalition governments are the norm, so party support is tenuous and expensive. This government is less than six months old but the smaller parties are already destabilizing it. Smaller parties negotiate cabinet seats and other means that bolster their coffers and position them for expensive upcoming elections and the horse-trading that will follow.

For all the criticism of Thaksin’s alleged vote-buying in the elections he won, it is the conservatives and their military guard who have again made money politics paramount. This is not as ironic as it might sound, for money politics keeps parliament weak and dependent. This means that true power continues to reside with the conservative elite.

Interestingly, PAD is also choosing the political party route. As they appeal to the same constituency, the PAD party is likely to take votes from the Democrats in the next election. That might seem an odd outcome, but for the conservatives, neutering PAD’s ability to mobilize mass support is an important victory and becoming a political party will probably achieve this.

Like the conservative and military governments of the past, Abhisit’s administration is increasingly reliant on the coercive state apparatus to keep people in their place. The critical agencies are the military, the Internal Security Operations Command (ISOC), the Ministry of Interior, and the Ministry of Information, Communications and Technology. Each has been given the budget needed to find and suppress perceived subversion and reinvigorate nationalist and royalist propaganda.

The government easily controls the mainstream media as much of it is state-owned. It is doing much more to intimidate the so-called new media, attempting to ensure that self-censorship becomes the norm.

This is especially the case when it comes to the monarchy, which is a pivotal element in re-establishing ideological consensus and determining “loyalty.” Several high-profile cases, using draconian lese majeste and computer crime laws, have targeted internet activity. These cases remind people that they are monitored and that transgressions are heavily punished.

Billboards, television and radio spots, and the prime minister exhort people to love and protect the monarchy. The security agencies are running seemingly endless campaigns that promote loyalty to the royal institution.

More insidious are the programs that exhort and train people as spies, asking them to inform on anyone they consider an enemy of the monarchy. Prime Minister Abhisit symbolically signed up as a volunteer spy. This is in addition to the hordes of government employed spies that trawl the media for acts of disloyalty.

The current government and the conservative agenda are bolstered by urban middle-class support. In the past it was thought that the middle class would be the force for democratization, but that’s no longer the case. This support was sealed during the April uprising that convinced the middle class that the red shirts will burn their houses, shops and factories to the ground the next time they rise. Hence they will support the establishment and limited democracy, backstopped by the men with guns.

Conservatives like palace insider Sumet Tantivejkul caution the middle class that their salvation lies with the monarchy and its ideas advise that this institution is under threat. They also warn that the red shirts will rise again if there is a lack of loyalty and vigilance.

But getting back to this style of conservative normality is no easy task. The establishment and their supporters are not going to have it all their own way. The April uprising demonstrated that the poor and disenfranchised are angry about the reinvigorated conservative political agenda. They want to have their political voice heard. Keeping them quiet is not going to be easy.

 The most recent confirmation is last Friday’s clearing of all officials involved in the October 25, 2004 Tak Bai incident in the restive South. Ruling that the military and police had acted according to the law and had used sound judgment, the court has approved of the army’s suppression of protestors that saw 85 die. Seventy-eight of the dead died in custody after they were piled into military trucks and driven away.

This tragic event occurred during Thaksin’s premiership, and he was roundly and rightfully criticized for it. But in the court’s decision, what mattered was not Thaksin’s role but the protection of the officials and military figures involved.

There are many similar cases. For example, the 2004 massacre at Pattani’s Kru Se mosque has never been adequately investigated. The mistreatment of Rohingya refugees by officials, caught on film just a few weeks ago, has been forgotten, with Prime Minister Abhisit claiming misdeeds by security forces. The execution-style murder of two men found floating in the river following April’s Bangkok uprising has also been neglected.

Getting back to normal means that the conservative establishment protects its own. Officials continue to operate outside the law, especially those who are part and parcel of the apparatus that protects the establishment and maintains its rule.

Letting the military operate with impunity is not just rewarding it for its service in shoring up the establishment’s rule but reflects its burgeoning political power. When Abhisit’s government was spawned in December 2008, it had three midwives: the People’s Alliance for Democracy, palace-aligned conservatives, and the military.

The PAD street demonstrations destabilized two governments that owed allegiance to Thaksin. The palace-aligned conservatives managed legal cases against Thaksin and those parties. General Anupong Paojinda, the army commander and a member of the 2006 coup junta, allowed PAD demonstrators free reign, and directed or approved the Democrat’s coalition that saw several pro-Thaksin politicians suddenly swapping loyalties.

Kevin Hewison is Director of the Carolina Asia Center and a Professor in the Department of Asian Studies at theUniversity of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

Many disagree with the Bangkok Post political philosophy, but I still respect them and proud that I was once a journalist there-because they are always doing things smartly there.

Information from:

http://nganadeeleg.blogspot.com/

http://bangkokpundit.blogspot.com/

By Terry/Tavivoot

Note: I am writing on this because I actually have some readers who are right wingers-and I just want to do them a service here and inform them that the best paper for smart right wing propaganda, is the Bangkok Post.

Believe it of Not

I literally don’t believe it when Nganadeleg, a neutral and popular blogger, said that the Bangkok Post erased a post from its forum Internet board.

And I could not believe it either that Bangkok Pundit, an extremely popular blogger with expatriates, said that the Nation reported that 70% of the people of E-Sarn supports Abisit.

Censoring Forum Board-Smart propaganda Move

On the Bangkok Post-so I thought it must be something really bad and nasty-to invoke a censoring activity by the Bangkok Post. So I read the post that Nganadeleg saved-the one that he says was censored out out of the forum. 

Well I must say after reading the censored post, that if I were a right winger who hated Thaksin greatly and deeply into Nationalism-I probably would find it suitable for censorship also. So my conclusion is, if what Nganadeleg said is true, the Bangkok Post has done a swell service to the Thai society-that is if you are part of the right wing society.

Others have erased it as well, sure, but people at those others-mostly anti-right wing-are on the verge of landing in jail and so really are real careful. But who dares mess with the Post or threaten it. 

But then if you are looking at this from a modern and open perspective-like a forum is where ideas and opinions exchanges freely-you probably think that this censoring activity is just another confirmation of the Bangkok Post position on free and independent press.

Lying Straight Face-Stupid Propaganda Move

Then on the Nation-the first thing than came to my mind, since I worked for both the Bangkok Post and the Nation Group in the past, is that here we go again.

Like how many times have the Nation Group do these type of lying straight face already-most people have lost count and lost track. But the Nation just keeps doing it and getting away with it.

Like really, to say 70% of E-Sarn people supports Abisit-is just like saying hey the world, the Nation has a bunch of stupid people reading us-so join in if you are stupid enough to buy what we say.

The Difference between the Post and the Nation

I have been telling people all my life since leaving the two papers that the only thing different between the Bangkok Post and the Nation-is that the one can always depends on the Post for “smart right wing propaganda,” and you can always depend on the Nation for “stupid right wing propaganda.”

Recommendation:

My recommendation to the Post is, while it is way ahead of the Nation-don’t slack off on being smart because the Nation is like a bunch of young kids with loads of energy-so if they gets the smarts and shape up, they can catch up.

To the Nation my recommendation is to work on the credibility thing-because really it is getting to the point that trusting the Nation with simple basic facts and reality is getting to be a very hard thing to do.

Thumbs Up or Thumbs Down for Thailand?

 

You Make the Call!

 

“Who are these military people telling me to step down,” Kasit, Thailand’s foreign minister

Situation: Poll says 60% of Thais want Kasit out after police start query if Kasit was involved in terrorism. Terrorist are also very active in Thailand’s deep south. Kasit also bought Thailand to the brink of war with Cambodia.

“There is no military people telling Kasit to step down,” Abisit, Thailand’s prime minister.

Situation: Abisit have been saying one thing and doing the opposite on so many occasions, many Thai doubt his words.

“Suthep didn’t go see Hunsen because there is a problem between Kasit and Hunsen,” Abisit, Thailand’s prime minister.

Situation: Suthep is the power behind Abisit. Hunsen is Cambodia’s prime minister. War is a potential betwen Thailand and Cambodia. In attacking the former government’s foreign policy, Kasit called Hunsen a cheap hoodlum. Kasit is now Thailand’s foreign minister.

“Most Thais do not trust the Thai judiciary system and think it has a double standard in being pro right wing,” Suan Dusit Poll.

Situation: It has been documented that the Thai judiciary system has been infiltrated and now dominated by the right wing.

“About 200,000 Thai small to medium enterprises are on the verge of collapse,” Thai Rath, a mass circulated daily that is neutral, economic team reporters said.

Situation: Under Thaksin, SEM and grass roots enterprises were built up, but the Abisit government is not following up.

“About 1,200 Thais will die from the epidemic in the next few years,” doctors, quoted in Thai Rath.

Situation: The Abisit government told Thais the epidemic was not a major health risk to Thais. Now Thailand has the highest death rate from the epidemic in Asia.

“The government must be open and tell the people the truth about the epidemic,” Chuan, a key Democrat Party leader.

Situation: Chuan, leader of the same party of Abisit, is seen as clean and open. However, the latest is that the health Minister maintains that the government did nothing wrong.

“Thai Railway is infected with massive systemic corruption, and same thing is happening with the 40,000 million baht new bus plan,” right wing Manager Weekly.

Situation: Manager Weekly belongs to Sondhi, a violent prone reight winger, who supports the government-but hates corruption above all els. The Democrat Party is known as very clean and Abisit is above financial corruption. However, Thailand is one of the most corrupt country in the world-especially at inventing new ways to steal from the public.

“Thai tradition of welcoming guest is being destroyed by politics,” Thai Rath editorial.

Situation: When Thaksin was the PM, the right wing hounded him everywhere he went. Now the red shirt are doing the same and now hound Abisit everywhere he went.

“The government needs to lower taxes because Thai businesses are having a very difficult time,” Thai joint-chamber of commerce.

Situation: The Abisit government is borrowing spending massively to put life back into the economy. The government pin hopes that the life injected will mean higher tax receipts to keep its finance in order. But businesses prefer tax reduction.

“Extremely tight security when it comes to anything the government does. And also extremely expensive public relations campaign to anything the government does,” Thailand opposition party spokesman.

Situation: In one trip, by Abisit to E-Sarn, a stronghold of Thaksin, it was marked by security from Thailand’s special forces and a prep-up of the town he visited with about 200 million baht spending.

“The government must reconsider its rice strategy before it is destroyed,” Matichon Weekly piece on the future of Thai rice.

Situation: Export-wise, cheaper rice than Thai rice is available. Internally-wise, the Abisit government has switch traditional price support scheme-to a new scheme.