Thai Crisis: Thailand enters “Second Stage” of “Civil War”

Thai Intel reported earlier, that Thailand had entered the “First Stage” of a “Civil War” based on the elite establishment control independent units and the courts, taking several decisively anti-Yingluck position, as on the street, Fascist Suthep’s protesters clash with police.

Since then, the independent units and courts have made more pro-elite establishment ruling, that have further polarized Thai politics with its hall-mark “Double Standard” rulings. A Red Shirts leader, days ago responded to the independent units and the courts, quote: “I urge the units and the courts to do the maximum damage and to go maximum on their rulings, and after that, we will see what the majority of the Thai people have to say.”

Apart from the independent units and the courts, pouring oil onto the political flames in Thailand, there is now a threat of a coup. Combined, the independent units and courts action and the talk of a coup, has meant that Thailand has entered the “Second Stage” of a “Civil war.”

Also Fascist Suthep is doing everything possible to destroy peace and normalcy in Thailand, including openly calling for the military to stage a coup. The latest, is Thailand powerful army chief, Prayuth, said he has not ruled out a coup, and would in fact, stage a coup, under some circumstances.

Clearly to Fascist Suthep, that is welcoming news. And clearly, as destructive he has been since he went protesting, Prayuth’s coup words will see fascist Suthep, become more destructive, doing anything, to set the stage for Prayuth’s coup.

The threat of a coup in Thailand was awoken, in the past few days, with the powerful Thai army chief, Prayuth, again saying that under some circumstances, he has not ruled out a coup as the solution. His statement shocked many in Thailand and globally, as up to that statement point, Pratuth have repeatedly said a coup was out of the question, and that quote: “Thailand’s political problems, must be solved through political means.” Prayuth also repeatedly said he was concern about a civil war.

Since then, there have been several clashes between the police and protesters, where Prayuth’s military has taken some questionable action, that appeared that the military is on the side of the protesters.

That type of talk by Prayuth, prompted Robert Amsterdam, the Red Shirts lawyer at the International Criminal Court (ICC), presenting the case of genocide against those who caused the death of about 100 protesters a few years back, to say on twitter, “Gen Prayuth’s threats to Thai democracy remind everyone of need for the ICC & that the Army does not consider itself bound to rule of law.” Prayuth, clearly now, with his possibility of a coup statement, have breached the “said” agreement, between Thaksin and the military, to leave the military out of the prosecution of the about 100 Red Shirts death, null and void. The Red Shirts meanwhile, said they will mobilize the Thais, against any coup attempt by Prayuth.

The relationship between Prayuth and the Red Shirts is a turbulent one, with the Red Shirts criticizing Prayuth, for a recent promoting of 100s of mostly soldiers responsible for the bloody crack-down on the Red Shirts. However, up the Prayuth opening the door to a new coup, the Red Shirts have often commended Prayuth, for taking a right stance on the current political crisis in Thailand, with Prayuth often saying the military is neutral.

Behind the scene, there is lots of talks about Pryuth using “Cloak and Dagger” against Yingluck, to even talk of Prayuth threatening Yingluck, for her to re-sign and other pressure tactics. Prayuth have also been making the rounds, for the new year paying respect, and he visited, apart from the usual heavy-weight such as Prem, but also other retired military officers, that are plotting against Yingluck to put themselves in power.

Yet having said all of the about, what is the likelihood of a coup in Thailand?

The problem is that Thailand, is slowly drifting towards a civil war, between the anti-Democracy Southern Thais and middle class of Bangkok, against the rest of Thailand, which is pro Democracy. The issue at confrontation is the February election, where the forces of Democracy wants an election and the forces of dictatorship wants to stop it, for a period of cleansing and reforming Thailand, so that the elite establishment will win in the future election. The flash point, leading up to that February election, is Fascist Suthep disruptive and violent activities.

A clashing of the people, between the rest of Thailand and that from Southern Thais and Thais in Bangkok, could take many shape and form, such as massive gathering of rivals clashing at certain level or the calling for Yingluck to get tough on Fascist Suthep as Suthep, up his disruptive and violent activities, such as the plan to shut down Bangkok.

Prayuth could in fact, stage a coup, at various points as Thailand more and more enters a civil war environment. The problem, for Prayuth is that Thailand has seen things progress to the civil war environment before and the staging of coup solved little, and in fact, many argue, what is occurring today, is a result of the 2006 coup. that placed Thailand,into this difficult “Divisive” situation today.

Fundamentally, Thai politics is getting increasing hot, with a threat of a civil war looming. Will Prayuth’s coup, calm and cool down Thailand or will the coup talk and the actual coup, be also like pouring oil into the flames.

  • The following is from the WSJ:

Is Thailand heading for civil war? The question may seem overly dramatic, but the decision of the opposition Democrat Party to boycott the Feb. 2 general election makes resolution of the struggle between the royalist Democrats and supporters of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra nearly impossible. Protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban vowed Sunday to hound Ms. Yingluck until she dies or steps down, and he ordered his supporters to block registration of candidates.

Faced with almost certain defeat at the polls, the Democrats have decided to pursue power by making the country ungovernable. Such behavior is the definition of a disloyal opposition, and the protesters use the word “insurrection” to define their movement. While they pay lip service to reforming the democratic system, at other times they demand that the monarchy install a new leader and that democracy give way to rule by the elite.

Thailand has been down this road before, most recently after a military coup in 2006 put the Democrats in power. The army forced through a new constitution designed to hobble the supporters of Ms. Yingluck’s brother, exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. This effort failed and made the situation worse. Voters in the countryside only hardened their opposition to the Democrats, and Mr. Thaksin’s supporters went on winning elections.

Mr. Suthep’s main charge against Ms. Yingluck and her brother is that they worsened Thailand’s endemic corruption. There is little evidence to support this, and the Democrats are no strangers to corruption allegations. Mr. Suthep resigned from parliament in 1995 after being accused of using a land reform to funnel assets to allies, an episode that brought down the government. (Mr. Suthep denied the allegations.) Last year the National Anti-Corruption Commission accused him of interfering in the Culture Ministry while he was deputy prime minister.

So far the pro-Thaksin rural population has remained relatively quiet, but they are seething with anger. They are capable of mobilizing far bigger protests to defend their elected representatives should that become necessary. Meanwhile, the once solidly pro-royalist military seems increasingly divided. That may be why the generals have kept to the sidelines this time, but if violence does break out it increases the risk of civil war.

The Democrats’ claims to represent the will of the people, but their leaders are bent on returning to power with or without the support of a majority. With such an opposition, Thailand’s democracy will continue to suffer.

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