Democracy: 3) Elite on major offensive, how safe is the elected government?

13654205271365420568l

By Ranger, Thai Intel’s political journalist

The Thai Elite Establishment is on a “Dual Track” with first, protecting the Thai military constitution, that serves Elite Establishment, and second, related to the first, is to attack, Yingluck‘s legitimacy to govern Thailand with an asset corruption case.

Both, are being done by using the justice system, meaning the court and the independent unit.

Thailand’s justice system, have played a key role in Thailand’s political conflict since the Thai King called on judges, in a speech five months before the coup to resolve a pending constitutional crisis. Since then, courts have voided an election won by Thaksin’s party, disbanded two parties linked to him, disqualified about 200 of his allies, sentenced him to jail and seized US$1.6 billion of his wealth.

Again, both, protect the military constitution, and attacking Yingluck, are being done by the well known Elite Establishment control of Thailand’s justice system.

Yet, for the Elite Establishment, in exercising its control over the justice system, through “Manipulation” of justice, there are some factors to consider.

This is Thailand, where the political divide have torn the country apart. One major wrong move by the Elite Establishment,  could land Thailand in a civil war, where the end result is, the Elite Establishment, have lost every election by a land slide in the past 20 years. The Elite establishment, understand that situation. Furthermore, the elite street muscle has mostly evaporated and a coup is now far fetch.

On the constitutional amendment, the critical factors are:

First; The constitutional court and Abhisit have a very close relationship, where the court have ruled against public opinion and what is good for Thailand before, in support of Abhisit. That blatant corrupt nature of the court is well known in Thailand, to the extent that the court translated the word “And” to mean “Or” and gave itself unilateral power, and erasing its website that said the court had to go through the Attorney’s general Office.

Second; A constitutional court judge, have admitted as making rulings against Thaksin, on political ground and thus, the court, currently, is extra sensitive to public opinion.

Third; The constitutional court have made a ruling on the Parliament constitutional amendment moves before & it was a “Gray” very “Confused Ruling” and the constitutional court, have also ruled on other matters in a very “Controversial Way” which means, Thailand’s legal community is highly skeptical at the constitutional court, at present.

Fourth; One objective, of the the constitutional amendment, is to reduce the power of the Constitutional Court, and thus, the case confronting the Constitutional Court, is about the survival of the Constitutional Court. The Constitutional Court, was set up, by the 2006 coup dictator government, as the “Primary Enforcement Tool” of the Establishment.

Fifth; Most Thai press and foreign, such as the Bangkok Post and Reuters, are under the Thai Elite Establishment control, and can assert influence to stop constitutional amendment.

Sixth; Thailand’s main movement for democracy, the mostly grass-roots Red Shirts, sees amending the military constitution as critical, and sees the Constitutional Court as the protector of anti democracy Elite Establishment. Stopping the amendment, could result, in new protracted protest. The Red Shirts protest, could lead to a new civil war.

Seventh; Objection, to the bill to borrow and spend on Thailand’s infrastructure, is with the constitutional court.

Eights; Poll of Thais support amending the constitution, and all polls of Thailand going back years, all says 70% to 80% Thais want Democracy.

On the Yingluck asset declaration case, there is only one critical factor to consider. That factor is, if the Elite Establishment, make a great deal out of the “Nothing Wrong Much” meaning Yingluck’s asset declaration mistakes, and got rid of Yingluck, the people of Thailand will rise up.

In sum, the Elite Establishment, is toying with a new Thai “Civil War” with both the constitution issue and the Yingluck issue.

The Elite Establishment understand this.

How likely will the Elite Establishment press forward with its anti Democracy & anti Yingluck  agenda? The only counter balancing force, in the minds of the Elite Establishment leaders, is the reaction of the Thai people. Here, some fraction of the Elite establishment understands the implication, while other fraction, wants confrontation and escalation.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s