- By Frank, Thai Intel’s political journalist
As Thai Intel has reported earlier-all is not great at the Democrat Party-as an internal rift on ideology is just under the surface between those that are pro-democracy and those that are pro-authoritarianism-see here.
Within the last few days, Korbsak, a high ranking Democrat Party indier, ditching the government’s cabinet secretary position, indicates that the power at the Democrat Party continues to be focus and consolidated on Abhisit and Suthep-both in favor of authoritarianism.
As Abhisit and Suthrp takes the Democrat Party deeper into the authoritarian ideology,Thailand‘s High Society are quietly galvanizing its net-work that opposes Abhisit and Suthep’s brand of authoritarianism-and are laying the ground-work to support a coup-with the rationale that is to put order back into Thailand-as the Abhisit government has failed the mandate given to them.
That High Society in laying of the ground-work for a coup government-without the participation of the Democrat Party-is planning to put in place an untra-authoritarian government that is professionally managed-with the crem of the crem of Thailand.
What is missing from the High-Society network are two crucial ingredients-and they are first, the incident that will spark Prayuth, the Thai army chief, to support a coup, and then secondly, a Prayuth that will be willing to let the High-Society select that “professional government.”
That government is expected to have close tie to the Yellow Shirt-but it is questionable if the High Society will allow the Yellow Shirt to participate in the governing. Other ultra-Royalist elements are expected to participate.
What is interesting, apart from a Thailand in the hands of a coup run by professionals, is how the struggle inside the Democrat Party will play-out, between those who are pro-democracy and those that are pro-authoritarianism-if the coup by professional becomes a reality.
What is interesting is also the reaction from the Red Shirts and the Pheu Thai Party-since the government that emerged with Prayuth backing, would likely have little reservations in coming out and slaughtering more protesters.
In the mean time, the Red Shirts and Pheu Thai Party are focused on having Taksin play a supporting role rather than a leading role-and the key focus now is for a broader appeal-spreading out from regionalism, lower middle income city dwellers, and the grass-roots, perhaps to the middle-class.
But the main focus of this report is to high-light for Thai Intel’s readers the 3-4 main theme of 2011-in the key power centers that will emerge. Again threy are:
- A fractured Democrat Party
- A strengthening High-Society with questionable Yellow Shirt involvement who wants to place a stronger brand of order in Thailand with professional managers
- Prayuth and his coup solution with more killings in-line
- And a Phue Thai Party and Red Shirts, much the dissident in Thailand, that are under-going leadership and strategy changes