Democracy: Aung San’s security situation & DKBA re-groups

Address by Aung San Suu Kyi at the NGO Forum o...

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By Stingray, Thai Intel’s national security journalist

A western intelligence source expressed concerns of Aung San safety after being released from about 8 years of house-arrest into an explosive situation in Burma.

“This is a critical time for Burma with Aung San being released and not accepting the junta’s conditions…..I hope Aung San is aware of the security implications as the situation in Burma could deteriorate with the minority Burmese people……..And this is not counting the Aung San factor kicking off against the junta that is trying to put on a democratic face……..The situation is very explosive, in turmoil and a state of flux,” said the operative.

As Aung San is released and calls are being made globally for the release of others-the Burmese junta placed a price on the head of top DKBA rebels-dead or alive in millions of the local currency.

One such top leader of the DKBA, Nakamuay, was just promoted to the ranking of General, commanding about 2,000-3,000 troops. The DKBA has issued a statement saying that they will wage a war on the Burmese junta.

“My estimate is that the war will resemble an insurgent guerrilla-with some differences in having a strong population base and perhaps in an alliance with other minority in fighting the Burmese junta…….Nakamuay has about 10 groups of soldiers with about 500-700 at each group-and 3 very capable commanders under him to command the groups……The center activity is around the Meawaddi area.

There are about 20 minority groups in Burma, each with a great deal of independence from the Burmese junta command-however according to Thai Intel’s source, the Burmese junta of “One Country, One Military” in getting the minorities armies to join the Burmese military, a guard, has caused a great deal of uncertainties.

“The Burmese government canceled the election in some 3,000-4,000 minority villages impacting about 2 million voters of namely the Red Wah or the  UWSA and the  Kachin or the KIA…..To them, that clearly indicated to many minorities that they will never have independence from Burmese control,” said the source.

The minorities themselves are divided, across ethnic line and within the ethnic lines also, said the source. “At this early point, it is difficult to say who will joining who or the chain of command involved…..My thinking is that there will be some form of a strategic alliance, but that will likely be the extent of it……I still do not see a joint command for the minorities forming at this point,” said the source.

The source said UWSA and KIA have been close and would likely be the core-with others like KNU, NMSP, KNPP and CNF drifting and chipping in.

The Burma junta wise, it just received about 50 MI-24 helicopter gunship and a moderate number of armored personnel carriers. These latest weapons and other older stack are expected to be used in an offensive against the minorities-once the junta forms a democratic face and have the Aung San situation-tied up.

Aung San, meanwhile gave a heart felt speech to about 500 listeners at her residence right after she was released today, and Thai Intel source says:

“Looks like she is jumping in and taking charge of her directions and the military will have some hard negotiations to make if it is going to exist with Aung San in a comfortable manner.”

Security was tight, about 500 Burmese junta police and soldiers stood watch.

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