by Frank, this blog political journalist
- So what is new?
According to Thai Rath’s cutting edge page 3 political analysis, Abhisit’s objective is to win about 140 MPs in the next election and with about the Yellow Shirt party, New Politics, targeted of winning 30-40 MPs, that will be a solid 200 MPs to form the next Abhisit lead government of the future.
Off course, standing in the way, apart from Puey Thai Party of Taksin, there are the smaller coalition parties that makes up the current government of Abhisit.
- But for a bit of Background?
Now Abhisit had been living under the coalition parties thumb for a very long time-like since the start of the formation of the government, Abhisit gave the coalition parties a rich picking of ministries to control and lots and lots of budget heading to those ministries.
Backing up the coalition parties, off course is Anupong and his Fierce Animal fraction in the Thai military. In fact, Anupong was the guy who went to the Nevin fraction at Puey Thai Party, and convinced him to defect to back Abhisit. The actual government of Abhisit, was formed inside a military camp.
But Abhisit saw, that the coalition parties ultimate objective, was to use the opportunity with Abhisit-to pile up projects to winning votes and standing with the public. So what does one expect, Abhisit went to scuttle all the projects and painted the coalition parties as corrupt and ineffectual.
Faced with that reality, the coalition then went to push for a constitutional amendment, so that smaller parties do not have to spend so much money on elections and can rely more on personal relationship. Again, what does one expect from Abhisit, he scuttled that move as well.
- Prem and Anupong?
Off course, backing Abhisit is Prem, the former military chief and Thai prime minister that is now a privy council. When things looked really bad for Abhisit and his coalition parties, off course Abhisit and Prem met. After that meet, off course, Abhisit’s exploded in confidence.
According to Thai Rath, Anupong who backs the coalition parties, simply told the coalition parties to “Live with the Situation.” Well do not be too hard on Anupong. Yes, he was on an empire building road of his own, but Prem is know as the “Killer from the Chao Phraya River.”
Inside the Thai military, soldiers from a military unit close to Prem-made successful marches to control the Thai military, pushing Fierce Animal, into a bunch of pussy-cats.
And thus, as we have reported, Anupong simply told his coalition parties, political allies, to just “Live with the Situation.” Thai Rath added that, “A coup is certain, if Abhisit looses power and Thailand falls into the hands of Taksin.”
- The Future?
Well who can tell the future? But we just would like to high-light some important trends:
- Poll indicates there is a great deal of “Hate” and “Rejection” towards Abhisit and the Democrat Party.
- Abhisit is becoming more and more confident that he is in control, and safely backed by the military who will stage a coup if needed.
- Coalition parties now realize that they are just a bridge for Abhisit to cross and move towards his final objective-that does not include them.
- Inside the Thai military, very few will venture into an Anupong-like political activity again, as the risk of being killed by the Killer from the Chao Phraya River-is certain.
- When Elephants Fight?
The bottom-line, is that the war in Thailand is going more and more towards the Amart or upper-crust rule of Thailand through Abhisit heading into a confrontation with the Taksin lead forces of Democracy and Freedom.
That clash between the two elephants-can produce a number outcomes.
Clearly, Abhisit is putting it all on the line, and if he wins-plans to be known as the Democracy killer and protector of upper-crust rule of Thailand.
Yet would a coup save Abhisit and the upper-crust rule of Thailand? Or will it just be a short-extension on the leash of life? Since the coup of 2006, have the forces of Democracy been wiped out in Thailand, or is it growing?
Who knows, but if Abhisit looses, judging by how practically everyone that is his friend had been back-stabbed by Abhisit-there is not going to be many running to save Abhisit.
And without a political arm, Prem and all his military might, will likely start feeling very cold, and this includes the wild and crazy designated future Thai military chief, Prayuth.
- The key to understanding it all, particularly Abhisit and Prem, is that they rely on “Fear” to rule.
- Other than fear, off course it is pork-and-barrel politics that is keeping it all together.