- By Stingray, this blog national security journalist
Overall, what needs to be high-lighted is that Anupong had just made a call for the military to “Protect Privy Council Members.” Several privy councils have in fact broken the law.
- But Anupong is concerned because propping up the acceptance of a Thai politicized military, are the privy council members.
The so called, “Thailand Military Supremacy Complex” had been challenged at all level by the Red Shirt. Off course, Anupong’s call to protect the privy council members, comes at the same time the Thai government is calling for a crack-down on lese majeste offenses.
The bottom-line here, is that Thailand continues to be torn apart between the forces of democracy and the forces of totalitarianism-represented by the Amart or upper crust rule of Thailand.
- Intelligence: Big ticketed military spending in the pipeline, including a satellite
Analysis: The Abhisit government is talking about a reduction in the stimulus borrowing by some US$20 billion at the same time that he is having to rely more and more on the military for support. The military sees this as the opportunity to extract arms purchase from the government. The wish-purchase-list by the Thai military is massive, totalling about US$6 billion, that includes a military spy and communications satellite.
- Intelligence: Unstable, radical, and extremist future Thai army chief marginalized
Analysis: The real impact of the split in the Thai military, caused to a great extent by the Red Shirt, appears to be a marginalizing away power from the crazy future Thai army chief Prayuth, to a great number of other generals, all over the place. There appears to have been a level of check and balance installed after all the dust had been settled thus far.
- Intelligence: Red Shirt leader assassinated after protest at military camp
Analysis: The government says it is keeping watch on key Red Shirt leaders, and the military has a Black-List of trouble makers in Thailand that obviously full of Red Shirt leaders. Thus the Red Shirt leader, was most likely been assassinated, to warn the Red Shirt not to go too far. The wider implication point towards a violent crack-down on the planned red Shirt massive protest.
- Intelligence: Coup is still the bottom-line
Analysis: The fundamental reason for the conflict in Thailand is democracy against totalitarianism. If democracy wins, the Thai military faces “Profound Reforms” that goes beyond just powerful generals loosing their power. So the bottom-line is that a coup is still a go, if the situation demands.
- Intelligence: Thai military defense capabilities stretched very thin
Analysis: Several factors points to a very stretched out Thai military-in handling internal and external security threats. Hun Sen visits to the Thai Cambodian border saw leaves of absent axed and soldiers calls back to active duty. Internally, a military units, guise as police, formed especially to deal with Red Shirt protest, is having difficulty filling the man-power quota.
- Intelligence: GT200 leads to leader of 2006 coup that now has a political arm in Deep South
Analysis: Sondhi, who staged the coup of 2006 is now being implicated in the purchase of the troubled GT200 bomb detector that works at times and not at times. Sondhi started a political party in Thailand’s Deep South, since he is a Muslim Thai and about 10 Thai MPs numbers are on the line.
- Intelligence: Global arms dealer and manufacturers targets Thailand
Analysis: Arms dealers and manufacturers are reportedly making very high level contact with senior Thai military general. In one instance, reports has it that the Thai representative of an arms dealer, had just bought a cutting edge home theater suit, for a Thai general-just to be able to get into the general’s house.
- Intelligence: Anupong in the US for public relations work and scout for arms
Analysis: Anupong is heading to some very high level US military establishments like West Point and the Pentagon, but there is no hidng the fact that most global military analysis now see the Thai military as not that professional and totally involved in politics. So Anupong has some serious public relations work ahead of him, and off course, some meetings with arms manufacturers.
- Intelligence: US ambassador meets Chaovalit of the Red Shirt
Analysis: US ambassador met the key Red Shirt leader, in a very hushed and secretive meeting that absolutely no leak of what they talked about emerged, except that US ambassador said days later that the US reaction to a new Thai coup would be more severe than the coup of 2006.
- Intelligence: Panlop, the Black Op Red Shirt, pre-excuses himself from future violence
Analysis: Thai press reports all sort of conflict at the top level of the Triad, being Red Shirt-Taksin-and Red Hawks. The bottom line to watch, however, is that Panlop said what ever violence happens in the future he is not involved. This is an extremely dangerous thing when a Black Op specialist says he is not involved.