- by Stingray, this blog national security journalist
Terry, this blog researcher, in his Thai name Tavivoot, was quoted in the coup wiki of 2006 to be the first journalist to warn of that coup and at this point Terry says it is likely but his sources will not confirm it as yet. Terry says he is digging deep for an early indication for Thai Intelligence readers. Therefore, the following are some factors to keep in mind in these difficult times for Democracy and Liberty in Thailand.
- Intelligence: Panlop says coup will be difficult this time
Analysis: Panlop is the former key person at the Thai Internal Security Command who now supports Taksin and the Red Shirt. Panlop is the man behind Sae Dang’s attack on Anupong, and is the key force projection strategist for Taksin and works side by side with Chaovalit, the former Thai army chief called genius. Panlop is an expert at violent under-ground “Black Op” type of work.
- Intelligigence: Prayuth takes over Thai National Security Apparatus
Analysis: Prayuth is the appointed next Thai army chief by Anupong and Prem, who are holding the Abhisit government together and not falling. Prayuth is an extremist radicle anti-Red Shirt to the maximum, and the reason he was chosen by Prem and Anupong is because Prayuth have absolutely no way to stand as a comander on his own-from being un-stable-and thus Prem and Anupong plans to pull Prayuth’s strings by providing Prayuth with political cover. Anupong and the Thai prime minister, Abhisit, has now abandoned their work on Thai national security and have given the entire responsibility to Prayuth.
- Intelligence: US Ambassador stern warning
Analysis: The US ambassador have said that the coup at this stage is just a rumor but if it occurs America’s reaction will be severe than the reaction in the 2006 coup that saw only a symbolic rejection in cutting military help-but as this blog reported America Pacific Fleet went training Thai generals of public relations concept used by the American military.
- Intelligence: Reuters confirm Thai Intelligence analysis reports
Analysis: Reuters quoted un-identified sources as saying there is a difference of ideology inside the Thai army. The ideology break inside the Thai army is between the Democratic Soldiers and the Amart or upper crust rule Thai soldiers. The break is between Chaovalit who sees Democracy and liberty as the solution to Thailand’s fail state condition and the Amart, who are interested only in keeping the status quo, being upper crust rule of Thailand.
- Intelligence: Taksin readies for government in exile
Analysis: Taksin has the resources and connections to get an exile government going if there is another coup in Thailand-being most likely in Cambodia, where a war between Thailand and Cambodia had been on the brink several times already.
- Intelligence: Black List vast
Analysis: The government of Abhisit has pin-pointed to the internal structure of the Red Shirt that is correct to a certain extent and it indicates also that the government knows of key players on the Red Shirt side. This coincides with the Thai military having a “Black List” rumored to contain about 1,000-5,000 Thais and foreigners that will be “Dealt With” if a coup occurs-to which Cambodia prime minister Hun Sen said Cambodia was ready to house Thais in exile from prosecution. Many senior Red Shirt people, have in fact, accepted the offer, and have established residences in Cambodia.
- Intelligence: Debate on Coup leader and coup prime minister began
Analysis: Latest news is that a debate is occurring with the coup plotters of who will lead the military action and subsequent coup leaders and also who will be the prime minister. This blog has gotten no confirmeation as yet of the coup leader, but it looks like Prayuth will be pulling the strings that are pulled ultimately by Anupong and Prem. As for the future prime minister, the debate is either Abhisit or Anan Panyarachon.