- By Singray, this blog national security journalist
There is a great deal that this blog can not tell our readers, because as many of you know, this blog sees itself in a battle for democracy and liberty in Thailand. We are an open-source intelligence blog that means what we inform our readers about, can also be used by those who are in-favor of totalitarianism and the Amert rule. We can only give you hints that is just the top of the ice-berg in Thailand. We hope you can understand the situation and not disappointed.
- Intelligence: Thai military says maybe coup, maybe no coup
Analysis: Un-confirmed early reports says the Thai military now says there might be a coup or there might not be a coup, as 95% of Thais says they are against the coup echoing the Red Shirt activity in highlighting coup danger. Bottom-line: Depends on how secure Anupong feels about his security
- Intelligence: Bombing of Anupong office involved higher ranked soldiers than Sae Daeng
Analysis: Un-confirmed reports says Anupong office was bombed by very high-ranking soldiers who are fighting for control of the Thai military and have nothing to do with politics. Bottom-line: If true, Anupopng is a walking dead if he does not stop putting cronies above other soldiers.
- Intelligence: A group of soldiers stage “Morale Boosting”
Analysis: A group of soldiers belonging to a unit close to Anupong have staged a rally in support of Anupong, against Sae daeng. Bottom-line: The need for the morale boosting tells of the true state of morale inside the Thai army.
- Intelligence: 50 Year Military Institution Anniversary
Analysis: The anniversary of the 50 year establishment of the Chulachomklao Military Institute is taking place today and will be attended by most graduates, who will be watching who stands and talks to who, for a power play indication of the future. Bottom-line: Many will not attend or those that do, will be on-guard.
- Intelligence: Thai army chief personal security “Heightened”
Analysis: The Thai army chief personal security has been heightened to “probable target” level. Bottom-line: Anupong is aware of the true level of threat on his life.
- Intelligence: Air Force New Jet Fighters
Analysis: The Thai Air Force did not want to send the F-16 to intercept Taksin private jet because it is entirely in-effective as they were not ready to fire on a private jet out of the sky and are deeply troubled to be drawn into politics. Bottom-line: New jets by Anupong to bring the Air Force back into the fold.
- Intelligence: Navy press government for submarines
Analysis: Similar situation to the Air Force, in that the Thai Navy does not want to get involved in politics. Bottom-line: A price must be paid for an alliance.
- Intelligence: Prem wants to pass away at peace
Analysis: Prem, the privy council, who is deeply involved in politics, says basically all he wants is that the spreaded all over the place Thai tank units be grouped together with about US$2 billion new equipment to form a central tank command. Bottom-line: Prem will most likely get the tanks and the balance of power in the Thai army will shift to this command.
- Intelligence: Thai Cambodian border ready to explode
Analysis: Thai Cambodia border level of conflict depends on a great many factors that have very little to do with Thai Cambodian government to government relationship. Bottom-line: A bad time for Anupong to face external threat.
- Intelligence: Red Shirt confronts future Thai army chief “Face-On”
Analysis: The future Thai army chief is a staunch extremist anti-Red Shirt to which the Red Shirt knows this and thus they plan to take the battle straight to this soldier in a protest. Bottom-line: The hate level by this soldier will go through the roof.
- Intelligence: Government on its “Last Leg”
Analysis: The real motivation behind the Democrat Party move on not amending the constitution that will benefit smaller parties, is to position the party for the next election, particularly against the Yellow Shirt increasingly strong showing in Southern Thailand where the Democrat Party traditionally rule. Coalition parties just do not want to spend the big money needed to win election under the non-amended constitution. Bottom-line: Democrat Party plans to feed money to the coalition parties via the stimulus spending that is buffeted by corruption.
- Intelligence: Army ready to deal with anticipated massive Red Shirt protest
Analysis: The Thai army says it is ready to deal with the Red Shirt protest, where the last time the army fired live bullets skirting the heads of protesters and said they will do anything to stop the protest, including a massacre. Bottom-line: We still hope for the best for Thailand.
- Intelligence: Police extremely angry at government
Analysis: The entire police apparatus is extremely angry at the government over indictment of senior police officers who dealt violently to the violent Yellow Shirt protest. Bottom-line: Law and order in Thailand going neutral, where very big bucks and very big political fire-power are on the line.
- Intelligence: Yellow Shirt active again
Analysis: The Yellow Shirt have gotten their political party going and are now ready to go active again on the street level. Bottom-line: The streets of Bangkok is poised to go totally wild again.