By Frank, this blog political journalist
Most long-time observer on Thailand, says the coup in Thailand is always all about the level of security in the positions of those who control the guns in Thailand-and everything else is just the stage and prop for the event, including politics and politicians.
There are two issues on the “Security of Position” issue, first, will a coup benefit the position and secondly, without a coup, will the position deteriorate.
The key driving people in Thailand at the moment are 3 people, and they are Prem, the privy council, Anupong, the Thai army chief who carries out Prem’s orders, and the Thai prime minister, Abhisit, who is the front man for the other two.
Therefore, to analyze if there is a coup or not in Thailand soon, it depends on the coup impact on these 3 people.
First off, Abhisit loves power and want to be the Thai prime minister, in any form for a very long-time into the future-so basically, he has no problems with a coup, since he is already being propped up by Anupong.
Secondly, Anupong has lost favor with the majority of the Thai soldiers and he desperately needs to protect his future when he is out of the military, because the anger towards him, will most likely explode towards him when he looses power-so Anupong would love a coup, as a way to ride out the re-surging Red Shirt movement and be in a position to crack-down on the red Shirt, without the guise that Thailand is a democratic country. So Anupong is in favor of a coup.
Lastly, is Prem. Prem is a tough nut to crack, when it comes to his intentions. Clearly, Prem believes that the Red Shirt wants a republic in Thailand. That is obviously a wrong assessment, but with Prem, it has always been “Himself and his beliefs before all else.”
One can argue with Prem, with all sort of facts and figures, till hell freezes over, but with Prem, it is what Prem wants. Prem is clearly, in-love with totalitarianism and in-love of coups.
But for Prem, he rose to prominence, mainly from his long tenour as the Thai prime minister in a government that is half-democratic and half totalitarian-meaning the military shared power with politicians. Finally, Prem said he was ready to quit and give democracy a chance.
In the final analysis, a coup or no coup in Thailand anytime soon, really depends if Prem wants to give democracy a chance or not.
The stage is already and all the props are ready for a coup. But right now, it depends on Prem.
Weighting on Prem mind right now, is if his involvement in helping a golf course break the law, somehow means his rationale for the Amart system or the class system rule of Thailand, is somehow wrong and out-dated-and thus it is time for democracy and liberty to flourish in Thailand.
That is with Prem, do not expect him to be able to relate to the deteriorating condition of Thailand, under the Amart rule. Prem is oblivious blinded towards it all.