Politics: The Thai Political Situation Before the Storm Factors

Siamese cats on a roll

by Frank, this blog political journalist

Intelligence: Red Shirt plans mass protest soon, that will draw 500,000-800,000 protesters easily

Analysis: Taksin says he plans to lead the protest, being very cryptic about what it means. But in any event, this will be one of the largest protest gathering in decades.

Intelligence: Thai high court on politics set to rule on “Nationalizing” Taksin’s billions on second week of February

Analysis: The Songkhla Net-work that controls the entire Thai judiciary that ties into Prem, will most likely see the entire amount nationalized very soon-especially after the attack on Sorrayuth who wil succeed Prem as the top privy council. But the timing of the nationalization right around the time of very active anti-government, is clearly targeted to turn public opinion against Taksin.

Intelligence: Thai military called to prepare for coup, if the government collapse

Analysis: Long-running rumors with some of the sharpest minds in Thailand and is a move that Prem wants right now, but the Thai army chief does not want another coup-since first, it will hurt the military reputation, and secondly, an underground resistance movement is certain to occur.

Intelligence: Opposition says they have on record of government land encroachment

Analysis: The opposition is taking into the next no confidence debate with lots and lots of amunition and the debate is televised live and out of government propaganda control.

Intelligence: The real reason the government canned the automatic lottery is to keep the illecit money flowing to it

Analysis: If not for the fact that the person who disclosed this is a former Thai finance minister who controld the Thai lotery bureau, this accusation may appear far fetch. But the involved amount of money is in the billions and billions and if the accusation is tru, the money is for an election war-chest, if ever an election comes again in Thailand.

Intelligence: The counter attack on the Red Shirt charge on the privy council, Sorrayuth forest encroachment, is to tie Sorrayuth’s encroachment with about 800 poor squatters-and sends the case to the forestry department to judge on the case

Analysis: The counter attack is seen by many as alienating the poor away from Taksin, but in fact, the poor understands that it is unfair to lump them with Sorrayuth’s case. Also the case that will take 60 days, is mainly to delay the Red Shirt tactics at mass negative momentum building-out of these crucial times.

Intelligence: Every political forces, on Abhisit’s side, is just about had it with Abhisit, but have no choice but to live with Abhisit

Analysis: Abhisit has a track record of stabbing people in the back and taking credit for anything that will win votes-and that have alienated him away from practically everyone. But Abhisit is the favorite of Prem and Prem is ultimately in control of Thailand.

Intelligence: Yellow Shirt party, New Politics, wants constitutional changes but kept silence

Analysis: The Yellow Shirt wants a change in the constitution so that smaller parties can have a better chance of winning, but it is tied to the Amart or class system that wants no change, so the Yelow Shirt are in a serious bind.

Intelligence: Poll still sees Taksin political arm wining with little “Hate” factor

Analysis: Considering the type of anti-Taksin press coverage, the government control of media, and Abhisit spending trillions on populous policies, it is a miracle that Taksin shows up in the poll at all, but to be ahead-this is something. About 15% of Thais said they will not vote for Abhisit against 5% no for Taksin.

Intelligence: ISOC secret poll confirms Taksin winning

Analysis: The Thai Internal Security Command also did a poll that showed also that Taksin is still ahead if an election was called for. This indicates a total failure of its own psychological warfare specialist that went convincing massive numbers of villages that Taksin is an evil spirit.

Intelligence: Kasit, Thailand’s foreign minister pissed off at Saudi Arabia Thai envoy

Analysis: Taksin is very close to Saudi Arabia, and since Kasit hates Taksin, that Taksin and Saudi relations pisses him off a great deal to the extent that he said the cases of Saudi disappearing does not need to be rushed as the Saudi envoy wants.

Intelligence: Thai politics called free float phase as change and redundancies clash

Analysis: Some cutting edge Thai academics says Thailand’s politics have entered a free float phase where no one really trust or knows what the others are doing or planning to do-as the Red Shirt, or change, goes against the class system, or redundancies.

Intelligence: Red Shirt objective short-term is to focus on building momentum towards the censure debate where a massive rally is expected-but the actual order is still in the strategising stage

Analysis: Who knows how the shots are going to be called, but the bullets include about 30,000 armed former soldiers, about half a million protesters, and a live broadcast of a no censure that is going to be brutal. Apart from that are a string of other events that can be pretty much ballooned or deflate at will.

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