By Frank and Stingray, this blog political and national security journalist
About 30,000 Red Shirt huddled together last night against freezing wind-on top of a mountain in the middle of the Thai winter. That mountain off course, is just the warm up, for the Red Shirt to lay down the rationale for a march on Bangkok, where the Red Shirt says they expect about a million Red Shirt protesters.
On-the line, is not the land that was occupied illegally by the Thai privy council to the Thai King-but the privy council system as a whole.
The Red Shirt argues, that the privy council system, as stated in the current Thai constitution, makes it possible for the privy councils, to influence Thai politics-and thus is against Democratic principle. And so the Red Shirt wants an older constitution back, that keeps the privy council out of politics.
And that objective, is taking the Red Shirt straight into a great deal of heat.
The Bangkok government-that wants the privy council to stay involved in politics-since the government and its coalition parties are of the opinion that the privy council are “Good People” and that the poor sells their vote-and thus the concept of Democracy, does not work in Thailand’s situation.
Wire service reports that the Bangkok government of Abhisit, will invoke the Emergency Decree to contain the Red Shirt. In Thailand, the Emergency Decree, “Tantamount” to the OK to do whatever is needed.
That what ever is needed, have seen the Thai military fired live bullets skirting the heads of the Red Shirt protesters and the military threatening the Red Shirt that they will disperse a group of cornered Red Shirt with any means-meaning a massacre if needed.
The Red Shirt dissipated against that threat, saying they will save lives.
There is little change in position of the current government of Abhisit, in his tactic to deal with the Red Shirt like he did last time-when he was willing to accept a massacre.
What is different time time ids the Red Shirt.
“It is up to the government, if they shoot, we are ready to shoot back. But our objective is peaceful protest,” said Veera, the leader of the Red Shirt, to Matichon, a mass circulated daily.
The danger to all involved, is that the Red Shirt now have the capability to do exactly that. A great deal of very hard-core former senior and not senior military officers have joinned the Red Shirt in the past few months-and these are the types that sleep with guns and their fingers spends more time on triggers of guns, that any where else.
“We have 7,000 soldiers armed and ready, and about 20,000 more in reserve,” said a former Internal Security Operations Command-one of many at the entire Thai intelligence and national security apparatus that have joined the Red Shirt-to this blog.
Apart from the guns, the source also said “more heavy weaponry” are also ready to be used.
If you wonder how did the situation got to this stage, and where it is heading?
The answer is that Taksin initiated a peace talk, that the privy council rejected-since part of Taksin’s position is that the privy council limits their political activity. Then the privy council, still sees Taksin as dangerous to Thailand’s tradition of keeping the highest institution ultimately controlling Thailand.
There were little hope in the first place, as most Thai observer expects, sooner or later, this time or not, this question as to the fundamental direction of Thailand-will most likely have to be fought out very violently on the streets of Bangkok.
Meanwhile, in Thailand at this moment-the answer is that nobody, even at the highest of places, or those with great deal of power, knows what is occurring or will occur in Thailand.
Literally, every key power centers in Thailand, are in conflict and suspicious of the other. What Thailand is entering is a free-float situation, where the situation and strategy of the seconds and minuets dictates the out-come.
Meanwhile, the Red Shirt, a coalition of “Change” in Thailand that ranges from the far right to communist, capitalist to socialist, liberals to conservatives, royalist and Republicans-are all huddling together against very freezing wind-and are uniting more than ever in their objective, to fix the fundamental problem of Thailand.
And that fundamental problem, is not the institution of the Thai king, but the privy council system.
The bottom line is “Democracy.”