By Frank, this blog political journalist
1) Taksin’s Cambodia House Nearly Completed:
Intelligence: Hun Sen is building a house for Taksin in Cambodia and it is close to being finished, to which some Puey Thay party members of Taksin said perhaps Taksin will start to spend more time in Cambodia and each stay will be for longer duration.
Analysis: We expect Taksin to spend 80% of his time in Cambodia after the compound is finished.
2) Government War-Room Active:
Intelligence: The Thai government war-room will be on a 24 hours alert from the start of next year, as the Red Shirt promise to up-their activity to the maximum.
Analysis: If the Red Shirt can muster the might, the government will be shaken to its core.
3) Democrat Revolt:
Intelligence: A key Democrat, Sukhumphan, just lash out at Democrat under Abhisit, underlines how the old-guard in the Democrat feel about the young Abhisit. The displeasure have led some to say it might be a good time for Chuan to come back.
Analysis: A mixture between a reminder to Abhisit that he will give other democrat party a chance at running things and genuine un-happiness of how Abhisit is governing.
4) Abhisit Targets 2 More Years in Office:
Intelligence: Those close to Abhisit said Abhisit is set on governing Thailand till his term expires in 2 years, despite saying he is willing to call for elections.
Analysis: No surprise, Abhisit is greatly into power. If the military says OK, he might be able to do it, depending, off course on the Red Shirt.
5) Chart Thai Pattana (CTP) Revolt
Intelligence: CTP Party head just said the party is looking into the pending dissolution case against the Democrat Party to see if the case is similar to the dissolution of Chart Thai, the fore runner of the CTP Party that was disbanded by the election commission. CTP is calling for the election commission to have one standard.
Analysis: The head of CTP is still pissed off that his party was disbanded and this may be just some venting of frustration.
6) Labor Flunk Abhisit 1 Year in Office
While Abhisit went spending massively on populus policies, a poll of laborers in Thailand gave him passing grade only in free water, the 2,000 baht hand-out check and the free bus. The remainder no matter what, the government failed miserably.
Analysis: Abhisit’s billions and billions of spending on populus policies has pretty much failed to win much favors from laborers.
7) Leaked Document Caused Witch-Hunt:
Intelligence: The leak Thai foreign ministry leak document is causing a witch-hunt in the foreign ministry, with anyone who is seen as close to Taksin, being a suspect, with some names already being floated about. The clamp down in security goes to the extent that any fax of classified documents, must be sent with the proper assigned person to receive it, before the document is sent.
Analysis: There is no way that the government can clamp down on leakages and most likely, the leakage came from those closest to the government.
8 Anupong Re-Politicized:
Intelligence: Apparently Anupong does not like his image of being the tough guy backing the current government-and so he just told the press that he is not a “Mean Fellow” and have no political ambitions.
Analysis: Anupong elevation of a soldier who clearly has a mental problem to be the next Thai army chief, is freaking out a great many people, and so Anupong is trying to smooth the transition because next April, the mad dog is taking over.
9) Black-Mail at the Thai Senate:
Intelligence: Some Thai law-makers are complaining that special interest who wants to push certain laws against Senators rejection, have gone digging for dirt on opposing Senators and threatening to expose the Senators if they did not pass some laws.
Analysis: No surprise. What is surprising is that there appears to be a few whistle blowers in Thailand.
10) Thamasart University Fair Boycott:
Intelligence: Thailand’s top university, Thamasart, had a long history of fighting for democracy, but since the Yellow Shirt appearances, the university had taken a far right turn-so much so that many ditch and boycotted the university fair. The problem is, they also went and told the few of Thailand’s liberal press of their move also.
Analysis: There is little hope for Thammasart, because un-like Chula, there is very few independent professors left at Thamasart.
11) Abhisit’s SMS:
Intelligence: Thailand’s prime minister Abhisit sent out about 3 million SMS when he first came into the prime minister position. Immediately the opposition question that move and put the case to the Thai election commission. That was one year ago and the commission took no action on the matter that clearly broke the law, because Abhisit said the SMS companies offered to do it for free, but the law says government can not accept gifts of more than 3,000 baht. The SMS reportedly, involves millions and millions of freebies to Abhisit.
Analysis: Watch for this to explode anytime when it is needed by the opposition.
12) Abhisit Copy’s US Marshall:
Intelligence: The Thai prime minister Abhisit, said he was going to set up a police force that is used only to go after those escaping justice-similar to the US Marshall. While Abhisit said it was to bring the thousands and thousands of Thais to justice, pundits said it was really meant to go after Taksin.
Analysis: Another law enforcement primed and ready for political influence.
13) Abhisit Reject US and UN call on Forced Repatriation of Hill Tribe:
Intelligence: Abhisit has rejected the US and UN call for Thailand to stop forcing a Hill Tribe back into Laos. Abhisit said the Hill Tribe is already well taken cared off.
Analysis: Abhisit just does not get it that there are a great many minority Laos people in the US and globally.
14) Chettha to Head Puey Thai?
Intelligence: The Puey Thai is floating Chettha, a very neutral and highly respected former high-ranking Thai soldier, to head the party and potential next Thai prime minister. Chettha have no commented on the rumor, one way or the other.
Analysis: This is a major strategic move by Taksin.
15) Democrat Relation with Coalition parties:
Intelligence: Most observer said Abhisit had been trying hard to keep its coalition parties head down-meaning, scuttling their attempt to make points with the voters through quality performances. But then when ever the situation gets bad for Abhisit, he would run to the coalition for support.
Analysis: Abhisit is the necessary evil to the coalition at this point.
16) Democrat Propaganda:
Intelligence: Commenting on reporter’s question about Abhisit’s promise to bring Thailand together, a highly respected Chula University professor, said all Abhisit has done on the subject is to attack the opposition “Very Fiercely” and painted the opposition as traitors.
Analysis: The press is peart of the problem in a major way, because Abhisit is press crazy.
17) A Major Seminar on Corruption and Abhisit’s Reaction:
Intelligence: Next year a major seminar is being held in Thailand on transparency and the Abhisit government, with worse corruption than during the Taksin time, said it will galvanize 1 million Thais to become the eyes and ears to combat corruption in Thailand.
Analysis: What else does one expect from the Thais.
18) Nithi’s More Than This:
Intelligence: Nithi, a highly respected academic, said there is more to Thailand’s problems than Abhisit, Taksin, Anupong, Prem and all the rest combined. The people’s interest and well-being is where the focus should be for everyone, said Nithi.
Analysis: A great many Thais agrees with Nithi on this.
19) Rumors of Party Mergers:
Intelligence: There appear to be some truth in the rumor that Chart Thai Pattana Party of Banharn and Phum Jai Thai of Nevin and Anupong, may merge or coordinate for the next election to which some politicians of both parties are laughing and saying “Great.”
Analysis: Unlikely, but possible depending on the prospect of being squeeze between the Democrat and Puey Thai.
20) Thailand Transparency NGO Gives Abhisit “A” in Fighting Corruption:
Intelligence: Thailand’s leading NGO on fighting corruption has just given the Abhisit government an “A” in fighting corruption, even as Thailand is tanking badly on corruption.
Analysis: The politicization of everything Thailand continues.