ASEAN Defense: Thai & Cambodia situation “Of Coups and War”

The ball is in Hun Sen's hand

by Frank, this blog political journalist

Well Taksin was so popular when he was the Thai prime minister for that long duration, the Thai military staged a coup to kick him out. Now Hun Sen is about the same, being in power for a long time and very popular, and now the leaked Thai foreign ministry document said Thailand knew of a coup in Cambodia, to kick Hun Sen out.

Then Taksin going to Cambodia and accepting a high position job, heightening all sorts of activities and controversial, is just so indicative of the nature of the Thais-to get rid of the problem by a coup.

Hun Sen off course, told AFP that the Thai were involved in the coup to kick him out, and also that the document showed that Thailand was preparing to go to war with Cambodia.

But really, does knowing about something, implicate those who knows?

Well in the Thai and Cambodian situation, the best that can be said is that there is probably nothing better to happen in Cambodia, as far as the Thai government is concerned, than a coup to kick Hun Sen out-and obviously, what the Thai government showed through its statement to the press, all along when the relationship was very hot, is that it was hoping and using the Thai Cambodian relation to cause as much un-rest, as possible, inside Cambodia.

Just go trace back and look at what the Thai government said-that obviously went straight to Cambodia’s press.

That un-rest off course, would be perfect for a coup. But that is about all a rationale person can really say, so it is both “Yes” and “No” to the question if the Thai government was involved in the coup plot in Cambodia.

But how rationale was the situation between Thailand and Cambodia?

The problem is, Cambodia earlier got rid of some “rouge” commanders, right in the middle of the problem with Thailand, in what the Thai media said was un-happiness by some military people inside Cambodia, of Hun Sen. Those commander, reportedly, did not want war with Thailand or a confrontational approach-and basically want Cambodia to extradite Taksin to the Thai government.

Could these commanders be in secret contact with the Thai government? Well, perhaps, since how can the Thai government says it knows about a coup inside Cambodia. But does that mean open support, apart from manipulating the relationship to support the coup environment-like actually giving military support to those Cambodians who plans to stage the coup?

Well, who knows what goes on along the Thai Cambodian border.

But what is alarming, off course, is that the leak document also called for the Thailand to prepare for war with Cambodia. Obviously, for Cambodia, a war with Thailand will probably tilt the power structure inside Cambodia towards a coup to get rid of Hun Sen.

Why did not the Thai military go to war with Cambodia and destabilize Cambodia for a power change? Well according to foreign military attaché n Thailand, a war will likely see Cambodia gaining global support, Hun Sen or no Hun Sen. And that means Thailand will be seen as the aggressor.

So senior Thai and Cambodian military went to play golf instead, with the Thai military that is propping up the current Thai government, resulting the current Thai government pretty lost of what to do next because the Thai military basically said, forget your war-plan.

But between Thailand and Cambodia, as far as the globe is concerned now with the leak document, it is really a card blanch for Hun Sen to do anything. Like really, staging a coup in Thailand is bad enough, now involvement in a coup in a foreign country?

So the conclusion is, we are going to have to see what Hun Sen does next.

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