By Stingray and Frank, this blog national security and political journalist
Anupong Faces Squeeze:
Anupong is seeing his political base evaporate right before his eyes, at a time, his grip of the Thai military is being challenge. Therefore, the question is, what will Anupong do now?
The moderate, quiet and always thinking Thai army commander, have kept absolutely quiet in recent days, as Abhisit position, that he engineered to the prime minister post via Nevin of Phum Jai Thai Party, while shaking to its foundation, is fast solidifying as the mainstream Democrats rallies behind Abhisit.
On top of that, Big Jiew is heading into the For Thai Party, that Anupong kicked out of government house, with about 20 top ranked retired military officers.
Therefore, Anupong political base in Nevin and his control of the Thai army, through massive pinning down of soldiers, have both weakened.
Little Movement Choice:
To forge ahead and back the Phum Jai Thai Party of Nevin, will likely be met with ire from the Democrat Party and the For Thai Party. To continue to isolate and put on ice, red oriented soldiers inside the military ranks, will likely see Big Jiew gain more in-road into the heart and minds of the military rank and files.
Yet to Re-Group, by pulling Nevin away from attacking Abhisit, will likely see Nevin going ballistic. And to Re-Group, by becoming closer to For Thai and Chaovalit, would likely see both Nevin and the Democrats go ballistic.
The Resonable Choice:
The choice appears to call on Nevin to back off on his attack of Abhisit, and forge a closer relationship with the Democrats.
While in theory that move appears to be the only alternative, in reality, the key objective of Anupong remains a secret. Anupong had little choice but to get Nevin to defect Taksin, as the Yellow Shirt had destabilized Thailand to the point of non-functionality. That problem solved, confronting Anupong now is Nevin’s aspiration to be Thailand’s prime minister.
Nevin Rise in Power, Tanks with the People:
That rise of Nevin have posed some serious question to the public. Namely, the question centers on the Thai justice system and corruption. Both are explosive issues that feed the Red Shirt critical mass level of energy. The rise of the Red Shirt, again may take Thailand back to where the Yellow Shirt, that now is with a political party base, to start destabilizing Thailand again.
What Anupong Wants?
But the key question is still what is the ultimate objective of Anupong. If it is to control Thailand in a direct way, a coup is always a potential. If it is to rise to the prime minister post, theough a more legitimate means, it may involve taking on some Yellow Shirt activity risk, as it would mean accomodating the Red Shirt.
If the objective to tame the wild side of Thailand and bring some law and order to the Thai political system, it would mean a sooner than later stop on attacking and destabilizing Abhisit and accommodating the Red Shirt.
If Anupong have no key objective but to make the best out of the environment, then again, a Re-evaluation of the situation is needed immediately.