By Frank and Pooky, this blog political and economics journalists
If Abhisit gets his way, he says he is open for an election in about 9 months. That will be about next July, where most economist say Thailand will start registering positive GDP growth by the start of 2010.
So that is 2 quarters of growth Abhisit will be taking into the election.
Abhisit position with business people is strong. However, in elections, it is not just the business people who counts, but the general public.
Here Abhisit faces some road-blocks. While Abhisit may be able to bring corruption under control, the likelihood, knowing how Thai politicians are, is that there will be more and more corruption charges occurring right up to the election. Then the ASEAN free trade agreement, will likely see a great many Thai hurt-from agriculture to SMEs.
Then above all else, next year public debt to GDP will explode to 50-60%. While tax receipts will likely continue to be weak as consumers spending and tourism will likely be subdued. Therefore, Abhisit can expect, leading economist, who are already on this case, to come out in droves. Over more, household debt and business debt, are rising fast and some economist are already looking at the situation.
All the above spells, a weakening of the economic recovery message. But politically, the business support means massive coffers for political activities. Yet again, the For Thai Party continues to be backed by Taksin, that despite it all, still managed to be ranked in the top 20 richest Thai. And while many Democrat MPs have gotten very rich with stock market investments, so have many others.