By Frank, this blog political journalist
An American top academic on the Thai military involvement in politics, Paul Sambers, said in his latest report on Thailand that the military will fail in propping up the Abhisit government.
“Because Thai political parties have mass support-such as the Yellow Shirt and the Red Shirt, the pressure they bring means the position of the military has been weakened, and its position as the king maker, by propping up the Abhisit government, will fail,” said Paul.
Paul is a key advisor to many Washington DC think-tank. The Obama administration, through Hillary via USAID, is reportedly supporting the development of Thai democratic process.
Paul said it appears that the Thai democracy will be damaged long into the future, with a coup always a potential as the military can always use “weak political process” to intervene.
The military therefore, is planning other ways to maintain its power in Thai politics, said Paul, indicating that perhaps a direct military control political party will be built.
“All of this will be to have a democratic process that the military can control,” said Paul.
Paul concluded that the trend and reality of the Thai military, means, “a weakening of civilian rule of Thailand and a non-interest in protecting the democratic process.”
Thai political party waiting in the wings to be taken-over by the military, according to Paul, is perhaps Phum Jai Thai, or the party being headed by the coup maker, Sondhi Boon.
Paul said however, that these military linked or controlled political parties will not likely have enough mass support at the grassroots level and will likely join force with old-system politicians such as mafia and influential people.
“You might end up having an alliance between the politicized mafia and the military,” said Paul.