By Frank, this blog political journalist
Forces Have a Way to Equal Out:
Einstein says in every force, there is an equal and opposing force. However, Einstein never really addressed the time involved and the actual interplay of these opposing force. And here lies the answer to Taksin’s future.
Matichon reports today, if it is correct, that the constitutional re-draw will be finished in about 6 month and then there will probably be an election, where according to Matichon, “The Democrats have ample resources.”
Matichon also quoted a former Thai prime minister, Kikrit, as saying in Thai politics, since the days of going to war with the Burmese on elephants, is based on two foundations only, and that is the military and the civilian.
Major Forces on Abhisit Side:
If an election do indeed occur, judging by what Matichon said, it looks like Abhisit of the Democrats have a good chance of winning the next election, based on those rationale in that the democrats is using the stimulus to gather support from the businesses and public, and the military is still very much right wing.
The Opposing Force:
The question is that Taksin understands all of the above, and probably be thinking about this equal and opposing force that is much under his control. So the challenge really is, what to do now leading up to an expected election in about 6 months time.
Election to Capture the Moment:
The bottom line in election is off course the electorate. What influence the Thai electorates is up to debate, but they have been known to disappoint even pollsters. But in Thailand, the electorates, while still dominated by money before the election booth, are much better off than the past and also much better educated. Simply stated, the money before the booth, has been marginalized greatly.
Other than that fact, it appears all the cards are also stacked against Taksin. The military through ISOC is busy building up the population base to help Abhisit. The Interior Ministry has put into place people who loyalty does not lie with Taksin. Thai business and media, have also mostly been bought out by the Democrats.
Forces are Highly Unpredictable:
But this situation have been in existence for quite a while now, and yet Taksin still won several election in E-Sarn. While Taksin is at the cutting edge of creativity and is highly effective, doing what he did in those winnings, may not be so easy across the country.
But still, the Einstein factor still plays a role. In the drive to solidify Thailand, many Thai electorates are turning against Abhisit. Simply stated, Abhisit is against democracy, social-justice and liberty. While Thailand is still very much based on the patronage system, many more Thais are now modernize. The question therefore, is how will these modern Thais vote?
The Modern Force:
This is a very difficult question to address. But it appears to fall into two question only and they are: Is it the money or is it the politics? Here there are both risks and opportunities. A better economic condition, will likely see the Reds increase their political activity. If the economy is weaker than expected, Abhisit will likely increase the pressure on the Reds, with a spat of Nationalism.
Then again, both Taksin and Abhisit may get into a dog fight scenario now with the election coming up, if that is the case. A dog fight means all out war from now on, on every front, with maximum force.
Forces Interplay Impact Balance of Force:
One question remains to be seen and that is, as this war occurs, how will the public perceive the war, in itself. Perhaps this will be the deciding factor that under-lies the election result. For example, thus far, the Yellow Shirt at Phra Viharn and the Nevin judgment, have embarrassed the right wing greatly-and it resulted in a major series of defensive moves. Taksin meanwhile, however, have reacted with mostly short-term moves to capitalize on that defense.
Abhisit Provides Much to His Opposing Force:
Both side in this war, are highly in-effective thus far. And this is leaving much of the Thai electorate to wonder and question. The answer in Taksin future, lies therefore in how effective can he answer questions. But then knowing how smart Taksin is, perhaps he is letting Abhisit run with it, and letting Abhisit provide the answer to the Thais himself.
Thus far, Abhisit is providing more and more Thais with a “No Abhisit” answer.
May the “Force” be with “You,” the electorates!