By Frank, this blog political journalist
Great Hope Dashed:
The great hope for Thailand, is that once the extremist and violent Yellow Shirt established a political party, they will turn to the Thai political system, to make their moves. All of that hope have been dashed now, with the Yellow Shirt action at Phra Viharn relics-where it broke security line and then clash with villagers-to the point that it wrung a compromise and got to go make their declaration of Thai ownership of the relics, inches from the disputed territory.
“Why should the Yellow Shirt play according to established laws and rules, when Abhisit himself shows little interest in bring all parties to the table and negotiate……. Even the constitutional re-draw is being blocked by Abhisit….Abhisit himself relies on special relation to stay in power, the same way as the Yellow Shirt can break laws with impunity…….So don’t expect the Thai political system to be able to solve anything,” said a For Thai MP, on TNN TV today.
Yellow Shirt to Face Election Booth:
Obviously, the Yellow Shirt understands very well that it will have to face the election booth. And yet they still took this route. What this may mean, is that they see this type of tactic, as can help them at the election booth.
And the Yellow Shirt is right, many Thais who are in contact with this blog, tells us that Thailand can not allow the territory to be lost. One Democrat Party supporter, even told us that she is very disappointed with Abhisit.
But while it may work, the move also bodes ill for Thailand. In that, even without a formal political base that is solidified with MPs in the house, the Yellow Shirt still feel confident enough to take this move. Some intelligent observers tell this blog, that when the formal political arm of the Yellow Shirt is in place, the Yellow Shirt could become even more “Radicle.”
Yellow Shirt High Place Support:
The Yellow Shirt gets secrets and open support signal from Thailand’s highest places. The artist and entertainers that perform at the Yellow Shirt gatherings, for example, often are called in by high places to perform. In the violent clash with police than result in death and injured to both the Yellow Shirt and police, the high places, even went as far as showing personal support to the fallen Yellow Shirt.
Yellow Shirt Gains on a Fractured Thailand:
In fact, the Reds, arch enemy of the Yellow, are so outraged by all these close support to the Yellow Shirt, it is one major cause why many of its leaders now reject this highest place. The fight between the Yellow and the Red, is one major flash point in Thai politics-where the Democrat Party of Abhisit, has risen to power on the Yellow Shirt back.
The Yellow Shirt, many intelligence analyst warn, once have gotten in-system foundation in place, with an expected MPs in of about 20-25, according to latest estimates, are expected to “Elevate” their struggle on both in-system and out-system plays-in a well organized orchestration.
One-Two-Three Punch Combination:
Apart from the in-system and out-system channels, the Yellow Shirt also have a strong media play available. For example, as the Yellow Shirt went to the relics, most of its media immediately start running stories on foreigners taking over Thai land. It’s highly popular and followed, Manager Weekly, went as far as saying that foreigners have now, taken over much of the land in 25 of Thailand’s provinces.
This “One, Two, Three” punching ability, coupled with little respect for the limits and being radicle, is expected to make the development of Thai in-system politics difficult. While the Abhisit government, is planning to get laws on “Protesting Control” passed, as long as the Yellow Shirt feel that they have a special relationship with high places, the in-system political play will likely have little integrity.
Best of Minds Turns “Destructively Creative”
Josept Schumpater, the icon of sustainable capitalism, say there is a wind of destruction that creates new opportunity for groth and opportunity. Sondhi Lim, is considered by most Thai media people to have the sharpest mind. His Manager Media Empire, while bankrupt financially because of over-extension, was amung the first media in Asia to start focusing on Globalism and Thailand’s need to develop the SMEs sector as the solution. Back then, writing for Manager is considered the highest point a journalist or academia to write for, except perhaps for the smart righ wing Bangkok Post group.
Sondhi, himself, is extremely effective. He took his Yellow Shirt cause, from inception, after turning against his close friend Taksin, with little support and build it into an organization that have significant critical mass-all withing one year. His Yellow Shirt gathering and support building, is much admired by all Thai politicians-even as many said it verges on being Facist-look a like.
Back to the Future?
Abhisit came to power mainly because the Yellow Shirt actions destabilized the government. In fact, “All” key Democrat Party MPs, including Abhisit and Korn, went visiting the Yellow Shirt at the occupied government house-against even posted court order that no one can enter the occupied government house. The relation today is that Sondhi Lim, of the Yellow Shirt, have asked the right wing electorate to choose between the Yellow Shirt and the Democrat Party.
However, most observers on Thai politics, say is only about the election and nothing much apart from that. “The fundamentals are the same in that both enjoys the same special relation ship with the same high places. The share a very right wing Royalism and Nationalism. And on economics, they are exactly the same,” said one intelligent analyst.
Taksin and the Reds May Face Hard Times:
That obviously means that while the fight will be extremely nasty between the two, once the election is over, they will nearly 100% form an alliance. And this bodes very ill for Taksin and the Red Shirt. Because the Yellow Shirt is on the road to being stronger, with one foot in the system, while its other foot will be most likely, stomping on the Reds.
Taksin and the Reds might be faced with a right wing government, if they are in power, that the level of “Radical” is just way up and the formal system, weakened greatly.
Forecast: In-System Deteriorates:
We see a worsening of the Thai political system and situation after the next election. If Taksin forces becomes the government, the Yellow Shirt will instigate unrest to destabilized it out of office again. If the Democrats of Abhisit becomes the government, we forecast the pressure on the Reds will increase to the breaking point.