By Frank-this blog’s political journalist
Looks like Abhisit have failed and on the way out! So is it Korn, Suthep, Nevin or someone from the Shin family-that will be Thailand’s next prime minister?
- Why is Abhisit on the way out?
- Basically, he is just too young and in-experience. There is a serious question now about his leadership and strategy skills.
- These two questions have come at a time when his shield, in being clean, is greatly tarnished by massive corruption.
The fight to control the top Thai police position and various top civil servant positions, has been hot because ultimately, these positions can help a great deal in winning an election.
- So the question is, why the big fight now? The answer might be because an election is coming up and as most Thai political observers have said, Thai politics is far from having settled down and is in fact “Very Volatile.”
Then the next logical question is, who will be the key candidate for this next election, or if some re-shuffling happens?
- Korn’s political future rides on a good economic showing and Korn is Abhisit’s close personal friend. It is most likely that Abhisit will hand-over his grab of the Democrat Party fraction to Korn.
- Suthep, who looks after security for Abhisit and a a major Abhisit booster in the past, is sort of the choice of a compromise between the two main competing fraction in the Democrat Party-but his chances hangs on the ability to find a solution to Thailand’s political impass.
- Nevin, who stuck a nasty knife into Taksin’s back, is much hated by the Red Shirt, but his ability to flim flam around is re-nouned and his chances lies in the ability to gain Taksin trust again-in case Taksin have no other choice.
- Someone in the Shin family is a strong candidate with the Red Shirt and Pruy Thai Party, but the opportunity depends on the risk level the Yellow Shirt will raise, and on the event that the Democrat party deteriorates with poor performances, to the point that people will accept Shin back.
Apart from the above particularities, there is no doubt that the military still hold great powers in Thailand. The military is very much fictionalized into groups as well with the corner-stone still is Prem who is a staunch Royalist in the classic sense. And so Prem will be against any Shin or an alliance of Shin.
However, there are the realist military fractions as well headed by Anupong, who are still Royalist but are driven mainly by pragmatism. And so this fraction will likely agree to anything that is not a threat to their position and power.
Then other less important players are the private sectors, like the Thai Bankers Association, Thai Chamber of Commerce and the Industrial Federations, that have all backed Abhisit strongly. However, if push comes to shove and if the economy does not improve, their suport for the Democrat party will likely evaporate overnight to being support to anyone that can fix the economic question.
The Yellow Shirt is also a force to always take into consideration. However, their position may be weakening as the terrorist charges sinks in and apart from a cult of followers, many who used to support them, may have ran away now as the economic cost of their extreme measures sinks-in.
Thai academic and NGOs have marginalized themselves by letting themselves be overcome by political emotions. Their impact is expected to be minimum.