By Stingray-this blog national security journalist
The Red Shirt have delayed their protest gathering as a protest against the emergency decree, but promise that the protest will occur at some time in the future.
“It has elevated the protest to force five hurricane level from just another nothing much Red Shirt gathering,” said a foreign intelligent analyst to this blog.
The analysit said the delay is expected to cause pressure to pent up and when the time comes form the gathering, it will result in a much more intense and larger gathering.
Many Thai observers said the government has “over-reacted” by invoking the emergency decree to contain the protest.
“They say it is just in case the situation deteriorates, but they could have waited. In the mean time, with their control of the military, get it to be readied and if and when the situation deteriorates invoke the emergency decree and contain it,” said the political team of Thai Rath, a neutral mass circulated daily.
Abhisit, the Thai prime minister that the Red Shirts are trying to get rid off through the protest, appeared not to have gotten the message. “For the protest to be cancelled for any reason is a good thing to happen,” said Abhisit.
Most Thai observers said that the Red Shirt are taking advantage of Abhisit weakness in leadership, making him appear as a fool for building up a major case against the Red Shirt protest, with the invocation of the emergency decree and preparing massive security amounting to some 5,000 police and tens of thousands more military personals readied.
“The invocation of the emergency decree has harmed Thailand’s image,” said several Thai academics and businessmen to Thai Rath.
Thai Rath reported today that the military have instigated very tight security, but now, “Does not know what to do.”
Abhisit fear the Red Shirt will invade and occupy the government house or the parliament as the fanatical Yellow Shirt did-and so he invoke the emergency decree and declared the government house and parliament off limits to Red Shirt protesters.
But most analyst said that the Red Shirt will likely not copy the Yellow Shirt, as Taksin, the leader of the Red Shirt popularity has been climbing fast as Abhisit’s is tanking. “Taksin will not do anything to hurt the Red Shirt chances at the poll. He has done everything right up to this point and will not likely commit political suicide,” said the analyst.
Poll of Bangkok people supports Abhisit’s invokation of the emergency decree. Howevr, up country, other than the South, most Thais are neutral on the subject. Many human rights activist have called the invokation as “Going against the rpght to protest, particularly the ban of protesting near the government house.”