It looks bad with many start to say looks like Abisit will have a hard time surviving till the end of the year-so that a recovering Thai economy will give it longevity. But Abisit is a master of politics with a great deal of tricks and magic under his sleeves. And fundamentally, Taksin still scares many. So there is still hope for Abisit.
But it looks like the “wild card” things are starting to stack up into a very big pile. And while Taksin scares many for many reasons, the bottom-line to many is that Taksin is a killer of a manager.
The Wild Card
- Epidemic situation, that can sap public support for Abisit, is difficult control.
- Internal fighting inside Abisit inner circle, between the Yellow and the Green plus Blue, is difficult to control.
- Several high impact cases, such as the assassination attempt of Sondhi, the election fraud, and terrorism against the Yellow, is difficult to control.
- The Thai economy, while improving but will be slow and uneven, is very fragile with many key sectors in deep problems.
- Abisit key economic leaders, in deep conflict among themselves and are increasingly being criticized across a broad spectrum of society, appear un-focused and at a loss.
- Several highly controversial initiatives-such as land tax and national re-conciliation recommendations, are pending.
- Several high profile corruption charges are coming into visibility.
Abhisit’s Money in the Bank
- ASEAN meet has given the Democrats much needed boost to government popularity.
- Massive spending, with a renewed urgency, will boost popularity in the near term.
- Coalition parties have no choice, politically, but to remain with Abisit.
- The massive government spending plans, with Thai politicians always taking a cut, is a major solidifying factor.
- All public units in Thailand, said to be independent or otherwise, ultimately are highly politicized and available to Abisit to control.
Reds Shake and Bake
- Reds promise renewed high impact activity at high frequent from August on-ward.
- Thaksin 60th Birthday celebration is solidifying the reds.
- The pardoned signature drive has been highly successful.
- Puey Thai, the reds political arm, is planning to grill the government on many weak points.
- The epidemic is hitting hard in the North and E-Sarn-a strong hold of the reds-and this magnifies government failure in those regions greatly.