We would like to say thank you to Bangkok Post, Thai Rath and Matichon
Well at newspapers, usually it is the political desk that ultimately controls everything. So when you have the Bangkok Post business desk suggesting that Kasit do some “deep” thinking about staying on as Thailand’s foreign minister, despite being question for terrorist activities-you just can see where the wind is blowing.
And when a right wing oriented paper with serious impact like the Bangkok Post and the neutral Thai Rath blows-you know a storm is brewing somewhere. Now Matichon Weekly has joined the fray. And that storm is very close at Abisit’s inner circle.
Well according to another newspaper with serious impact, Thai Rath, looks like Suthep, who engineered for Abisit to become the prime minister, is out of the loop, and in his place is Nevin-head of a political group that defected away from Thaksin. Things have gotten so close between Abisit and Nevin-don’t rule out the possibility that Nevin may merge his party with the Democrats of Abisit.
Matichon Weekly provides an inside scoop that says that military commanders are worried that Kasit is taking Thailand too close to the brink of war with Cambodia, how ever Kasit is close to the Thevese House icon. These military commanders are also worried that Kasit will take the right wing government of Abisit down with it.
Suthep, who controls security for the Abisit government, therefore is the prime suspect behind the police bringing charges against Kasit. In doing so, Matichon Weekly speculated that Suthep got the OK from the military.
Thai Rath provided further insights saying there apparently is a major power struggle on in Abisit’s inner circle and it now fairly certain that there is the “Yellow”, the “Blue”, and the “Green” camps inside the Abisit government-apart from the other political parties and also the fractions competing for power inside the Democrats.
Inner Circle: New Power Structure
Well according to Thai Rath, Suthep has literally been trashed by a great many people-like a fraction that competes with Suthep headed by Trilong, CIA’s trained Prasong who is in tight with the extreme right, and you guess it-the main man at the Thevase house-who controls Thailand’s military. And the problem may really be about the charges bought about by police against the yellow shirt and their man in the Abisit government, Kasit-because Suthep looks after security for Abisit.
Perhaps testing the new power structure inside the Abisit government is the fact that police have somewhat soften its position on the terrorism case against key yellow shirt leaders that also includes Kasit-in response to a legal tactic by the yellow shirt in challenging the legality of the police charges.
For intelligent analyst-the key question is what now?
Suthep is not likely to play dead and see his political career end in the ice age. And Suthep is really a nasty and tough fighter that can never be underestimated. However, the case against him by the election commission will likely see Suthep maintaining a level of influence through proxy.
Tigers around Abisit might be having a hard time living in the same cave
But then, knowing what a killer of a politician Abisit is, like Thais Rath says, maybe all of this is a great big opportunity for Abisit to reshuffle the whole deck and start putting the right people on the right job-instead of doing it for political necessity. The charges against many Democrat Party MPs by the elcetion commission may add to the situation.
Counter balancing all the power struggle at Abisit’s inner circle is as Matichon indicated that all of this really proves that the Abisit government is ultimately the pupet of the military and ultimately controlling the military is the Thavese House icon. His strategist is off course Prasong who is trained by the CIA-and Kasit is highly pro-American.
So the bottom line is, if Thai Rath’s analysis is correct, there will be a critical path coming up. many in Thailand are estimating the the next election will occur in the second or third quarter of next year-after the political reform process is completed-however many says Abisit will likely use his powers to delay the election untill the positive global economy and the stimulus packages kick in and register some solid numbers.
The ASEAN thing will certainly give Abisit the clout and might pass that critical path smoothly.
The problem for Abisit is off course the red shirt, and how much attention they can take away from Abisit in the ASEAN meet. The reds have now said they will hold a massive gathering at the end of this month, fresh on the heels of the ASEAN meet.
Significantly, Matichon Weekly, reported that the red shirt has totally reorganized its internal apparatus, under a single roof to take care of its weakness in command and control. This next meet will test that new organizational structure and policy demands.
As for Nevin, his power lies mainly in his ability to galvanized the E-Sarn votes-and as Matichon editorial reported today, E-Sarn is still pretty much Thaksin’s territory. So Navin will obviously need to boost his sales and convincing tactic to keep Abisit believing that there is still hope in E-Sarn. But then Thaksin knows this and is really really going all out in E-sarn.
Over more, several trends are going against Abisit
Matichon also said that the reds have reworded their petition to get Thaksin pardoned, a point of rejection by many, and made it softer and reflective of Thai culture and sensitivity. The trend is also going against Abisit in that the committee to bring peace to Thailand has recommended letting politicians that are barred from politics by the courts, to re-enter politics. And this means a great many highly skillful and capable politicians on the red side.
Business also are feeling the pain of the Abisit government. Many business people in Thailand are starting to reminiscence about the days that Thaksin was managing the economy, as reported by many sources. And this comes mainly as a result of repeated failure of Abisit to deliver the goods-meaning it has failed in the eyes of many business people.
This analyst still believe Abisit can pull it off-But!
While there is no doubt that Abisit is a master of politics that is also clean and good looking, but increasingly his future is more about performance, not politics.
It looks like China will help pull Thailand out of the dumpster-but this really awful management of the epidemic is really bad all around for Abisit. Then the potential war with Cambodia and the Kasit question lingering on-just adds to the bad feelings.
On top of it, poll after poll, while saying Abisit should stay on, but on the performance side its thumbs down-and this indicates the support for Abisit is very shallow and weak.
But Abisit has some good people on his side like Korn-and believe it or not, Nevin is a highly capable problem solver. Together the three may still surprise people in delivering the goods-especially if the global economy gives Abisiut a cushion.
So really, it comes down to delivering the goods, and keeping people with massive egos like Suthep and the extreme right fanatics in the game.