- By Ranger, Thai Intel’s political journalist
It was called “Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD), between the USA and Soviet Union-and what MAD produced was the “Cold War.”
If one were to look at Thailand today, if the events since the 2006 coup proved anything, is that the Thai establishment and Taksin, are capable of destroying each other-in fact, much of what occurred in Thailand since then has been nothing but MAD.
- To break that MAD situation, is Thailand’s reconciliation process:
However, the factors involved in the reconciliation is just so may. There is the general amnesty, the constitutional re-draw, the lese majeste law issue, the issue about Abhisit and Suthep’s murdering spree, there is the issue about the political prisoners, the issue about the several crimes by the Yellow Shirts, the corrupt court, anti-corruption, and election unit as part of the judicialization of Thailand, the politicized military-and the list can go on and on-to even academics fighting and multiple-units responsible for the reconciliation process.
The above mentioned issues, are not just some small issues-but can be trace back to the fundamental differences between the Thai establishment and Taksin’s progressive globalist vision.
What the leaders of both side are trying to avoid, is a direct clashing of that differing fundamentals-which is very much like the “Cold War” era, where there is the concern of MAD, hanging over the entire relationship.
The only place left, for the competition between the two warring ideology, is at the “Cold War” level-meaning, indirect confrontation and competition.
- Thai Intel argues, that Thailand, has very much entered the “Cold War” period:
Bangkok Post, yesterday, had an article saying, quote: “Taksin was worried about the Merchants of Conflict.”
In Thailand, currently, there are mainly two merchants of conflict-and they stand for different ideology-and the conflict comes from the nature of their being.
The radicals of the Thai establishment, such as the SLIMS, Yellow Shirts, some elements in the Democrat Party and media such as the Nation Group stands mainly against progress to protect and promote Thailand’s tradition-and this is mainly the Bhutan Model. While on the other side of the merchants of conflict, are the Red Shirts, who stand mostly for progressive modernization towards a Thailand that is Democratic and globalist.
- Lese Majeste and Constitution:
One area of conflict, in this Thai “Cold War” that has broken out, inside the two differing ideology superstructure envelope, is clearly, the lese majeste laws and the military drawn constitution.
What is interesting, off course, is that Taksin wants to return to Thailand a free person-and the only way for that to occur is for a “Real and Meaningful” reconciliation. Here, Thai Intel just wants to ask our readers-is this a realistic expectation?
- Skewed Picture?
And because of this wanting to return to Thailand, Taksin has injected himself, into the entire picture-and skewed events to focus on himself.
What Taksin, may have forgotten, is that the Thai establishment will never allow Taksin to return to Thailand, as Taksin symbolized the evil of the progressive globalist democratic idealogy-and allowing Taksin to return to Thailand, tantamount to accepting that ideology that Taksin represents.
Thai Intel argues, that there is no way, that acceptance will be made-with Thailand, in its current stage of development. The mental situation of the Thai establishment, is still ancient. And thus the Thai establishment is willing to push Thailand to MAD, to prevent Taksin return. The only way for Taksin to return to Thailand, Thai Intel argues, is when the Thai socio-cultural aspects develops to a more advance stage.
- That could take decades:
Meanwhile, in the current “Cold War” in failing to realize what he, Taksin himself, represents to the Thai establishment, but instead, in Taksin’s hoping for acceptance and the chance to return to Thailand-Taksin have compromised, the fighting chance of the philosophy to which he represents-in the current “Cold War.”
The following is from the Bangkok Post:
Reconciling a certainty_ Thaksin
Ex-PM says he’s wary of ‘merchants of conflict’
Published: 21/12/2011 at 12:00 AM
Newspaper section: News
Ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has predicted that national reconciliation will figure prominently in the political picture next year but that “merchants of conflict” will do their utmost to thwart peace efforts.
Thaksin told the Bangkok Post in an exclusive phone interview from Dubai that politics next year will enter a reconciliation mode with compensation paid to victims of the political unrest.
The charter amendment drive will press ahead to ensure democratically-elected representatives of the people will not be toppled so easily and that small independent organisations set up under the present constitution will not wield too much power over others like in the past, he said.
Thaksin said a constitution must truly adhere to the principles of democracy by emphasising the importance of those who are elected by the people and the importance of checks and balances.
He said the Thai Rak Thai, the People Power and Pheu Thai parties all won in past elections.
In particular, the outcome of this year’s election after the political unrest last year, shows the people want reconciliation and for the country to move forward, Thaksin said.
He said the charter change drive, the push for legislation to bring about national reconciliation and the compensation process should run in parallel to achieve results more swiftly.
If the three issues are dealt with one at a time, there could be problems, he said. This is because there are certain elements with political influence and holding key positions who do not want peace in the country.
These people will try to thwart peace efforts because they still want to benefit from being the merchants of conflict in the country, Thaksin said.
He said the merchants of conflict include people holding important positions and some members of the media.
Thaksin said if these people succeed in obstructing national reconciliation, political violence could ensue.
Thaksin stressed the importance of the charter amendment move. He said that in Thai culture, people tend to get around the rules and regulations and some of them condone actions that violate the constitution and support the overthrow of elected representatives of the people.
“After the [previous 1997] constitution was torn up, the new constitution was drawn up and strewn with landmines. As a result, the poor and the underprivileged always have to step on these mines. This is the weak point of the [present] charter,” Thaksin said.
He insisted he has not and will not influence the present government and parliament where the Pheu Thai Party commands a majority.
He said he was only trying to point out problems as an observer who sees what the problems are.
“Those who are not brutal and not self-centred had better get into reconciliation mode now,” Thaksin said.
Meanwhile, the Pheu Thai Party yesterday held a meeting to prepare for the next House session which will begin today. The meeting was attended by several key party MPs and the party’s cabinet ministers.
Pheu Thai spokesman Prompong Nopparit said after the meeting that party members discussed charter amendment and many agreed with the party’s move to amend the constitution which was a key part of its election campaign pledges.
Mr Prompong said the party has not yet reached a decision on the matter, although it agreed in principle that with the plan to amend Section 291 to allow the set-up of a new constitution drafting assembly (CDA).
Details of the proposed amendments will be discussed later, probably after New Year, Mr Prompong said.
Previously, Pheu Thai list MP and red shirt co-leader Weng Tojirakarn said the party’s legal team had completed a bill to amend Section 291.
The provision allows only ministers and MPs to put forward proposed amendments to the charter, rather than a CDA.
Under the proposed amendment, the CDA would comprise 97 members _ 77 elected from each of the existing provinces and 20 appointed academics.
A Pheu Thai source said possible changes would be made to provisions covering the dissolution of political parties and the five-year political ban.
The source also said some MPs in the dovish wing of the party suggested it adopt as a model the famous PM’s Office Order 66/23 issued by the Prem Tinsulanonda government in 1980 to win over communist insurgents by granting them a general amnesty.
Then army chief Chavalit Yongchaiyudh was the chief architect of the policy, which took a political approach to ending the communist threat instead of a military one.
As a result of that order, many insurgents turned themselves in which eventually led to the end of the communist insurgency and peace bing restored.
But the source said a referendum should also be held for the public to decide if they agree with the amnesty model based on the 66/23 order.
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1 Comment(s)
One could argue that Thaksin’s ‘progressive globalism’ while in power was in itself realpolitik to pave the way for Shin Corp’s eventual sale.
What’s ‘ancient’ in Thailand is ‘face’, and that never changed in the Thaksin years – note the circuitous Liverpool deal where ‘they’ (the sellers) ‘lost face’. TS’ progressive globalism was, it could be argued, a more globalised version of ripping off foreigners.
As such, this won the support of the Ammart for some time, until either his ruse was discovered or his credibility blown by the Shin deal.
Also, there did not seem to be a huge legislative push to ‘globalise’ other areas of the economy where TS may not have been able to benefit.