- By Stingray, Thai Intel’s national security journalist
When the globe’s most respected magazine on air power, reports China and Vietnam in a race for air force superiority, and Thailand opted for the inferior Gripen fighter, and the Thai military reluctant to joint the weapons of mass destruction non-proliferation treaty, because the Thai navy is afraid to inspect ships-one knows the Thai military has failed in its mission.
And for much after the 2006 Thai military coup, Thailand had become nothing much more than a basket-case, shunned by even ASEAN.
That comes at a time, that it is getting very clear, that China’s mission in the Pacific Waters, is to dominate the area, rich in natural resources where China, have already, came close to several clashes with other countries in the area.
- Yingluck Heading to India, China and USA:
Heading into that “Troubled Waters” is Yingluck, who is expected to visit India, China and USA, in the near future-in a succession one after another.
India, have already proposed to Yingluck, a joint India Thailand naval patrol, where India and Vietnam have very close link on natural resources development in the Pacific Waters. And the Thai USA annual joint military exercise, is one of the largest annual military exercise globally that is even larger than the USA and Australia exercise in the Pacific.
Yingluck can not get away from it, anyway the Thai national security establishment tries to shake it, Thailand is a part of an ASEAN, with several members of ASEAN in direct threat from China. If conflict do occur, there is not a single doubt, Thailand will have to take action against China.
- Threat and Opportunity from China:
Counter balancing that dangerous aggressive stance of China, is China’s beneficially economic might. Yingluck herself, as most of the Thai business community, comes from Chinese descents. The Thai Chinese Chamber of Commerce, is one of the most powerful lobby in Thailand, putting the Thai American Chamber of Commerce much into the shadow of being nothing.
While India can offer some counter balance to China’s in economic power, China continues to out-pace India’s economic growth. However, the wild cards here, is that China appears to be on a perpetual verge of a property economic bubble, and the economic condition of the USA has stabilized with a political situation, that is very dissatisfied with the economic performance.
- Key Thai Factors in Play:
Yet, as that heavy luggage, from having to carry a failed Thai military and a Thailand’s economy dominated by Chinese Thais, drags Yingluck foreign policy-there are several factors to consider when analyzing Yingluck’s power play with India, China and USA.
First, Thailand is geo-graphically situated at the center of the South East Asia region-and thus, it is in a position to play a “Pivotal Role” in any regional conflict. Secondly, Thailand’s foreign reserve is now close to US$200 billion with ASEAN’s second largest economy-that as the Thai flood indicated, is critical to the global economy especially in high technology and food security. Third, The Thai military, having failed in recent years to remain cutting edge, yet in size, it is the globe’s 22nd strongest military force.
- What would Yingluck choose to do?
Can Thailand remain neutral? Can Thailand convert the attention from China, India and USA into concrete bottom-line benefit to Thailand? What are Thailand’s responsibility to ASEAN? And would Yingluck wake-up to the realization, that in geo-politics, a country’s military is one of the most important corner-stone?
The following is from the BBC:
Obama’s victory over China?
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and US president Barack Obama holds talks in Bali on 19 November 2011 Obama and Wen: Were there fewer smiles behind the scenes?
The spin from the White House is pretty simple. A week of summitry and speeches by President Obama resulted in the diplomatic equivalent of a bulls-eye.
China’s Premier Wen Jiabao was “a little bit grouchy”, we are told, when he was confronted by Asian leaders backed by America who wanted to talk about the tensions in the South China Seas, but then “by and large, he was very measured”; there was no “tirade”.
That is being taken as a triumph for Mr Obama and his policy of re-engaging in Asia, re-positioning the US as a key player and guarantor of regional stability.
Mr Wen had very publicly said that he did not want to have China’s disputes with the Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei brought up at the weekend’s East Asia Summit.
Mr Obama though, attending the summit for the first time, had insisted it was the “premier” arena to discuss “maritime security”.
‘No showdown’
The summit brings together all 10 states in South-East Asia and other regional players – the US, China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, India and Russia.
The unnamed White House official briefed that the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, Australia and India had all raised the South China Seas issue. Seven more nations, including Russia and Indonesia, addressed concerns about maritime security.
Dang Dinh Quy, president of Vietnam’s Diplomatic Institute, addresses the opening of the 3rd international workshop on the South China Sea in Hanoi on 4 November 2011 The South China Sea issue is topping agendas across the region, including at this forum in Vietnam
The US official said that American pressure to bring up the issue had not led to any sort of confrontation, there was no “showdown at the OK Corral”.
But he stressed the result was, the US believes, positive: “The Chinese will come away from the meeting believing that a heavy-handed approach on the South China Sea will backfire badly and there is a genuine consensus on the importance of a constructive process to find a peaceful way forward.”
The White House view, then, is that American involvement helped put a tricky issue on the table and encouraged smaller nations to stand up to China.
It has also implied that China had to adopt a more constructive tone because it was shown that an aggressive pursuit of its territorial claims in the South China Sea would alienate many of its neighbours.
‘Positive contribution’
China, of course, has its own spin on all this, best summed up by one headline that reads “China takes US return with aplomb”.
Mr Wen, Chinese official reports stress, did respond so as not to be rude to his fellow leaders.
“I don’t want to discuss this issue at the summit, however leaders of some countries mentioned China on the issue. It’s impolite not to make a return for what one receives,” he said, according to the official Xinhua news agency.
“Start Quote
The Chinese side has by and large taken the US debut at the Bali summit as something constructive”
China Daily
“The South China Sea is an important transportation passageway for China, regional countries and even the world. The Chinese government has made a positive contribution to safeguard the navigation security in the South China Sea.”
China, observers often say, does not like to find itself isolated in international gatherings and will seek to avoid confrontation. But that does not mean it will shift its fundamental positions on issues it believes are important.
The official China Daily’s Monday editorial continued with the positive spin, saying that “a stronger US presence in the Asia-Pacific economic scene is good for all parties”.
“That is why, in spite of all the speculation and rhetoric about US attempts to contain China, the Chinese side has by and large taken the US debut at the Bali summit as something constructive.”
China, the paper says, is clear that its incredible growth “would have been impossible were it not for the peace and harmony achieved through decades of hard work” in Asia.
But the paper does not mean hard work by America. While the US believes its alliances and its military presence in the Pacific have underwritten peace in Asia, China has a different view.
“What the US has so far brought to the region, however, has the potential to disturb this elusive and fragile achievement,” the China Daily said.
It accused America of trying to “scaremonger by exaggerating security concerns” and said that if Mr Obama was referring to China, those concerns were ‘”imaginary”, because China had a great reliance on trade and so a real stake in keeping sea lanes open.
Many observers in China are now trying to work out whether Mr Obama is actually committed to deeper strategic engagement in Asia or whether he is really thinking about his own re-election, talking up ties with growing Asian economies as he is searching for ways to boost a flagging economy at home.
‘Foul-mouthed officials’
And in case you thought the US intervention means there will be an outbreak of peace and harmony in the disputed waters of the South China Sea, the official Xinhua news agency issued a new broadside on Monday, directed at the Philippines.
Philippine President Benigno Aquino meets Hillary Clinton in Manila on 16 November 2011 Clinton visited the Philippines – described by China as a “third-rate ally” of Washington – last week
The Philippines has one of the most tense disputes with Beijing over the South China Sea. China claims hundreds of miles of ocean, right up to a few dozen miles from Philippine territory.
The Philippines has renamed parts of the South China Sea as “the West Philippine Sea”. Government officials have criticised China publicly and they have stressed their mutual defence agreement with America.
Xinhua thundered that the “Philippines’ constant provocations are mostly political stunt” and the work of “some foul-mouthed Philippine officials” who, it said, echo “Washington’s ‘Return to Asia’ Strategy”.
It went on: “Many people here in China advise that the country should take fitting measures to pay the Philippines back, as they believe it is necessary to prevent another country taking a leaf out of the Philippines’ book against China.”
The commentary also warned the Philippines that “some analysts take it as risky that Washington would stake its prestige on a remote, strategically third-rate ally when it provokes a clash with a neighbouring far stronger nation”.
And Xinhua had a warning too for Mr Obama, saying: “It is wise for the US to avoid getting embroiled in the intricate disputes poisoning regional politics, in lieu of what it is currently doing: sowing discord or acting as an agitator in the flare-up.”
It all sounds much worse than grouchy. If anything it reads like a heavy-handed tirade, and peace and harmony do not get a mention.
So while America’s new policy of engagement may have encouraged China’s neighbours to speak out and China’s leaders to listen, unwillingly, back in China, it has only fuelled the angry, bellicose talk of some.
The following is from the Economist:
China and America in South-East Asia
Dance of the giants
Nov 21st 2011, 9:18 by R.G. | BEIJING
THE spectre looming over Barack Obama’s eight-day swing through Asia was unmistakable. Behind the talk of a trans-Pacific free-trade zone, and the agreement to rotate American troops through a base in northern Australia, and America’s first participation in the East Asian Summit meeting in Bali, the president’s tour was all about China.
As if to mark the end of a decade in which a rising China was superseded by radical Islam as America’s biggest potential security threat, Mr Obama is now recalibrating his foreign-policy machinery and focusing on the Asia-Pacific region.
The government in Beijing has used some of the past decade’s worth of breathing-space shrewdly, launching a charm offensive in South-East Asia, building hospitals, roads and schools, and becoming the largest trading partner of many of the region’s countries while America whistled a lonesome, security-obsessed tune. But in the past couple of years, occasional rumbles of thunder out of China—especially on the subject of the South China Sea—have sent South-East Asian governments rushing for the shelter of the American umbrella.
The Obama administration had signalled clearly that its policy shift was coming, but there was still plenty of fulminating about “containment” from China’s increasingly nationalistic news outlets. The loudmouths of Beijing can easily match their bloviating counterparts at America’s Fox News huff for puff these days, and not just towards the United States. The infamously belligerent Global Times warned Australia that it “could not play China for a fool” in agreeing to allow American troops to be based in its northern city of Darwin. One thing is certain, said the newspaper on November 16th: “if Australia uses its military bases to help the U.S. harm Chinese interests, then Australia itself will be caught in the crossfire.”
But China’s relatively avuncular premier Wen Jiabao has snorkelled this reef before. As he arrived for the regional forum known as the East Asian Summit in Bali, he took a hard line, saying that “outside forces should not, under any pretext” interfere in a regional dispute over the control of the South China Sea. Mr Wen may have listened warily as Mr Obama announced further rapprochement with Myanmar, including plans for a visit in December by his secretary of state, Hillary Clinton. Myanmar has, over the past 20 years, developed an extremely close relationship with China, and yet here again was a case of America reasserting its influence in the region. Indeed, it could be taken as confirmation that South-East Asia is a potential crucible for future confrontations between America and China.
And yet Mr Wen managed, almost, to charm as well. An American official briefing reporters as Mr Obama flew home aboard Air Force One said that on November 19th, during a two-hour session, 16 of the 18 leaders present raised concerns about maritime security directly with Mr Wen. The official Chinese news agency reported Mr Wen asl saying he did not want to discuss the issue at the summit, but adding that it would be “impolite” not to answer a neighbour’s questions. So he defended China’s stance on the South China Sea.
Though the same American official told the New York Times that Mr Wen’s response was “grouchy” at times, he acknowledged that at least the Chinese premier was “not on a tirade”, nor did he use many of the more assertive formulas that are frequently heard from the Chinese. In the American’s judgment the overall discussion was “constructive, and not acrimonious”. China’s leaders clearly feel that, for now at least, discretion is the better part of grouchiness.
Chinese academics too—an increasingly independent bunch, who have become comfortable discussing international issues candidly with foreign reporters—are at pains to play down whatever threat China might feel posed by America’s latest moves.
“Many of us believe that what America is doing is somewhere between engagement and hedging, but not containment,” says Jin Canrong of Renmin University in Beijing. Mr Jin says that China’s comportment with America is much more mature than it used to be and notes that the two sides enjoy much better channels of communication than they had.
“Chinese belligerence on the South China Sea is mainly for domestic reasons,” agrees Pang Zhongying, also of Renmin University—a bold statement considering how much the Chinese belligerence is shaking up the Asia-Pacific. Mr Pang admits that “domestic pressures could lead to a misjudgement by Chinese leaders.” China is no democracy, but its leaders still have powerful domestic constituencies in the media and the army, as well as among the general public, and must be careful not to come across as weak. At the same time they have plenty of work ahead if they are to convince their neighbours and America that their rise can continue to be peaceful.
Mr Jin says he can understand why people might be nervous about China’s rise. But he insists that instances like the one in March 2010, when Chinese officials sparked concern in Washington by telling senior American officials that the South China Sea was part of China’s “core interests” (on a par with Taiwan), are simply part of a process by which China is trying to settle on its own foreign policy. “We are in the middle of an internal debate,” says Mr Jin, “and the result has not been decided.” Looking at the rapid growth of China’s military forces and the country’s increased forcefulness in the world arena generally, America might find it hard to believe that the debate remains undecided. Meanwhile, Mr Wen and his colleagues will continue to try balancing tough talk with engagement, a challenge not unlike the one facing Mr Obama. With an American presidential election due in November 2012, and a leadership transition in China at about the same time, these will prove tricky waters to navigate for both sides in the year to come.
It has always been more difficult for the rising power to persuade the incumbent power that its intentions are benign. On November 19th the China’s official news agency, Xinhua, published a commentary arguing that if the United States sticks to its cold-war mentality and continues to engage with Asian nations in a self-assertive way, “it is doomed to incur repulsion in the region”. Xinhua’s assessment, it so happens, might be even more aptly applied to China.
The Following is from Eurasia Review:
ASEAN: World Leaders Meet At Bali – Analysis
Written by: SAAG
November 21, 2011
By C. S. Kuppuswamy
The 19th ASEAN Summit and Related Summits were held at Bali from 17-19 November 2011. The world leaders, Barack Obama, Ban Ki-Moon, Wen Jiabao and about 15 Heads of State attended the discussions.
ASEAN, established in 1967, has completed 44 years and seems to have come out of its mid-life crisis, when it was often dubbed as a talking shop. It has been successful in resolving the minor conflicts that have erupted in the region making South East Asia as one of the more stable and peaceful regions in the world.
With the various sub groupings established such as the ASEAN +3, ASEAN+6, APEC and East Asia Summit as well as the one to one summits with its dialogue partners, ASEAN has maintained close relations with all the neighbouring nations and has been able to play a leading rule in the economic well being of its nations and in monitoring the political – security situation in the region.
19th ASEAN Summit
Indonesia is the current chair of ASEAN and the theme earmarked for this year is the “ASEAN Community in a Global Community of Nations” — expected to be achieved by 2022. ASEAN does not want to wait till 2015 (when the ASEAN Community is to be established) to engage the global community as the global situation is changing very fast.
The major decision taken by the ASEAN leaders on 17 November 2011 was to make Myanmar the ASEAN Chair in 2014. Though US President Obama expressed his concerns on this decision by saying it as premature, Aung San Suu Kyi welcomed it.
ASEAN leaders confirmed their commitment to accelerate the implementation ASEAN Political-Security Community, ASEAN Economic Community and ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community. Member states also expressed the need to expedite the implementation of the Master Plan on ASEAN Community to ensure ASEAN competitiveness and integration in all aspects.
The summit culminated in signing of, the Bali Declaration on the ASEAN Community in the Global Community of Nations, the Agreement on the Establishment of the ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Human Assistance on disaster management and the Declaration on ASEAN unity in Cultural Diversity.
The Indonesian President then transferred the ASEAN Chair 2012 to Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen.
6th East Asia Summit (EAS)
This year’s EAS was special in the sense that the two major powers US and Russia were formally inducted into this grouping.
Relief measures for floods and other natural disaster was the top agenda item for this year’s EAS. Leaders discussed how to recover their economic growth and prevent future natural disasters for the good of the whole region.
During the summit, it was also discussed as to how the region and its trading partners will cope with the global slowdown in economic growth while Asia continues to show the strongest growth of any region.
Besides the discussions were held on broad and strategic issues of common concern at the regional and international levels, and on ways to enhance and strengthen the cooperation within five priority areas of the EAS, namely finance, energy, education, communicable diseases, and disaster management.
The Summit concluded with the adopting of two key documents – The declaration of the EAS on the principles for Mutually Beneficial Relations and the Declaration of the 6th East Asia Summit on ASEAN Connectivity. The first declaration will serve as a guide line for EAS participating countries (based on UN Charter and Treaty of Amity and Cooperation). The second specifies connectivity as one of the key areas of co-operation of the EAS besides the existing five priorities.
ASEAN-China Summit
In the ASEAN-China Summit held on 19 November 2011, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao warned “outside forces” from getting embroiled in the South China Sea dispute. Wen told ASEAN leaders “it ought to be resolved though friendly consultations and discussions by countries directly involved’.
Achievements of ASEAN and Related Summits
Susilo Bambang Yudhyono, President of Indonesia in his final Press Conference gave out the nine main achievements that had been discussed and deliberated during the ASEAN and Related Summits.
Concrete measures to strengthen the three pillars of ASEAN community
Strengthening the regional economic growth
To assume a pivotal role in building a more efficient and effective architecture for regional cooperation
To maintain South East Asia regional stability and security
Strengthening the role of ASEAN globally
Joint efforts to strengthen the economy of East Asia (East region)
Joint efforts to develop platform and real action to address food, water, and energy security as well as climate change
Joint efforts to address non-traditional security challenges: natural disasters, terrorism, transnational crimes
Joint efforts to maintain peace, security and stability and order of East Asian region.
India at the Bali Summit
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was in Bali from 17-19 November 2011 to attend the 9th India-ASEAN meeting and the Sixth East Asia Summit. He was accompanied by the National Security Advisor, Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister and Secretary (East) MEA.
At the 9th ASEAN India summit the Prime Minister, while indicating the progress made on various fronts intimated that:
The India-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement for Trade in Goods has come into effect in all ASEAN Member States and India following its ratification by Cambodia on 1st August, 2011.
India’s trade with ASEAN has increased by 30% in 2010-2011 and has crossed the 50 billion US dollar mark. With such a rate of growth we should be able to achieve our trade target of 70 billion US dollar by 2012.
The inaugural India-ASEAN Business Fair was held in New Delhi in March 2011 along with meetings of the India-ASEAN Business Summit and Business Council. Investments from both sides are steadily growing.
The Prime Minister also sought the support of ASEAN nations for the early conclusion of a meaningful Services and Investment Agreement which would create a positive atmosphere for implementation of the India-ASEAN Comprehensive Economic Co-operation Agreement.
He also extended an invitation to the leaders for the special ASEAN-India Commemorative Summit to be hosted by India in December 2012 (on completion of 20 years as a dialogue partner and 10 years as a summit level partner).
At the East Asia Summit, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said that India fully subscribes to the view that the EAS process must be centred on ASEAN and ASEAN should be its driving force. While talking about the global economic situation showing several signs of stress he said that India like other Asian countries are growing well and contributing to the recovery of the World Community. He complimented the Comprehensive Asian Development Plan to enhance connectivity in the region, brought out by the Economic Research Institute of ASEAN. He also gave out the progress on the Nalanda University in India (approved in the East Asia Summit in Thailand in 2009).
In a meeting with Wen Jiabao on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit, Manmohan Singh told that “Indian Interests (in the South China Sea) were purely commercial” and “issues of sovereignty should be resolved according to international laws and practice”.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had also a meeting with President Barack Obama on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit. Obama said there were “no irritants” in the relationship and that the two countries continued to “strengthen the bonds”. On the nuclear issue Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said that he told Obama that American Companies would have to operate within the “four corners” of the law of the land and “we are willing to address any specific grievances”. He also offered the setting up of a joint working group to allay American concerns about Nuclear Liability Bill.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had also met Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen and discussed the different aspects of bilateral cooperation.
News Analysis
Indonesia, a founding member of ASEAN, was hosting the ASEAN summits for the third time in 2011 (earlier in 1976 and 2003). Indonesia has played a stellar role in the development of ASEAN.
Jusuf Wanadi writes (Jakarta Post 17 November 2011) that the four initiatives brought in by Indonesia, in the Cambodia-Thailand conflict, in supporting Myanmar for the ASEAN Chair in 2014, in convening the EAS with US and Russia and to keep dialogue and negotiation on the implementation of the Declaration of Conduct of Parties in South China Sea moving ahead, are major achievements of Indonesia’s leadership during its 2011 ASEAN Chairmanship.
ASEAN is going full steam for establishment of the ASEAN Community by 2015 based on the three pillars (political, economic and socio-cultural) and is aiming for the goal of the “ASEAN Community in a Global Community of Nations” to be achieved by 2022.
The current rivalry between US and China has come to the fore in these summits though both sides have justified their postures. Wen Jiabao’s warning was certainly directed towards USA.
With all major powers US, Russia and China attending the summits, ASEAN has become one of the leading regional organisations the world.
India in pursuance of its “Look-East Policy” has taken an active part in these summits and has laid a firm ground work for greater India-ASEAN Cooperation.
About the author:
SAAG
SAAGSAAG is the South Asia Analysis Group, a non-profit, non-commercial think tank. The objective of SAAG is to advance strategic analysis and contribute to the expansion of knowledge of Indian and International security and promote public understanding.
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