- By Stingray, Thai Intel’s national security journalist
About 30 years ago, when I was an utterly ignorant guy to the ways of the world, I had a fight with my father. The whole clan was concerned. Finally, my uncle, stepped in, and gave advice. Later on, my father called me in, and told me, quote: “A father and his young son fighting is normal, but you have made an ass out of both of us, in front of outsiders.”
Yingluck, the Thai prime minister, says she has no time to carefully scrutinize the list given to her by the Thai Defense Minister, Yutthasak, relating to the reshuffling of senior military soldiers. That could be a factual statement, given how hot Thai politics have been, the massive flooding, and the visit to foreign countries.
But a factual statement or not-the latest, is that Yingluck’s secretary, have told Yutthasak, that a position, available, to un-lock, the complicated matrix, relating to the re-shuffling of top soldiers, will not be available. That means, the original list of re-shuffling, made with the assumption of the availability of that un-lock position, is now again in a total “Black-Box” re-designing situation.
When the Thai press, such as Bangkok Post, Thai Rath and a host of other far-extreme right-wing press that is close to the Thai military-gets confused about something, like the reshuffling at the Thai military high-command currently-and are just following the news like everyone else, grappling to understand what is going on-you know we are talking about something very “Cloak & Dagger” related.
But what is no cloak and dagger, is that Thailand‘s Defense Minister, Yutthsak-is turning out to be the “Fall Guy” making statements, in defense of Yingluck, in defense of the powerful Thai military generals and in defense of the Thai military.
The problem at the current re-shuffling at the Thai military, fundamentally, beneath all the cloak and dagger, involves a very deep struggle of power, between the Thai military and the Pheu Thai Party.
How deep does that struggle go? Well Prayuth, just ordered the “Young Turks” of the Thai military to be prepare for a coup, if Yingluck took the opportunity, in the current internal-struggle in the Thai military, to change the power balance in the Thai military significantly, meaning, removing Prayuth-at the top of his gang of top commanders that controls the Thai military.
On the surface, of that struggle, centers on the following as the Bangkok Post’s national security journalist, Wassana reports:
Advisory post jeopardises reshuffle of military brass
Published: 16/09/2011 at 12:00 AM
Newspaper section: News
The annual military reshuffle may need to be revised if the cabinet does not approve the proposed creation of the post of advisory chairman to the defence minister, Defence Minister Yutthasak Sasiprapa says.
Gen Yutthasak yesterday said he has raised the matter with Bunthoon Supakkawanich, the prime minister’s secretary-general, in an effort to ensure a smooth reshuffle.
He said Mr Bunthoon did not submit the proposed job opening to the cabinet for approval and this may cause problems with the reshuffle.
The creation of the post, with a rank equivalent to field marshal, was introduced during the tenure of Thaksin Shinawatra.
It was designated as temporary and created specifically to help tackle problems related to military reshuffles. It requires cabinet approval.
Gen Yutthasak said Mr Bunthoon feels the basis for the creation of the post has been distorted. There is a request for such a job opening made by almost every administration.
“I’ve informed the prime minister’s secretary-general that the reshuffle will be affected if the post isn’t approved. This is because the position is part of the reshuffle list,” he said.
Gen Yutthasak said the Defence Ministry’s committee that has been handling the reshuffle will have to call a meeting to revise the lists if the position is not approved.
The defence minister also denied speculation that the matter is being stalled to force negotiations over the choice of a new defence permanent secretary.
He said at this stage the proposed permanent secretary appointment is not subject to review.
Gen Yutthasak has nominated deputy permanent secretary Wittawat Ratchatanan to be permanent secretary, but the Pheu Thai Party prefers Sathian Phoemthongin, chairman of the advisory board to the Royal Thai Armed Forces.
The cabinet on Tuesday delayed consideration of the reshuffle list apparently due to the differences over the permanent secretary post.Gen Yutthasak said Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra may revise the reshuffle lists if she wants.
“I don’t have a conflict with the prime minister. She is my superior and I am obliged to respond,” he said.
The bottom-line, to all of the above mess, however, relates, to the strength of the Prayuth’s gang of “Seven Tigers” of the Thai military. Prayuth, is known as a hot-head. However, Prayuth have shown a very high degree of “Forward Thinking” related to the Phua Thai Party, coming to power.
Prayuth, a hawk, and his close friend Daowpong, over-ride concerns of other military officers, and followed Abhisit, Thailand’s former prime minister order, and went on the crack-down a few years back on the Red Shirts activist, that result in a blood-bath. There is no doubt, with the Red Shirts, that are very close to the Pheu Thai Party-they are fiercely, anti-Prayuth.
The Pheu Thai Party, meanwhile, came to power on the promise of “Reconciliation” and have since been pushing for “Reconciliation Road-Map” that includes, forgiving the Thai military, and working with Prayuth and his gang of “Seven Tigers.” But the reconciliation stops, at the past-and what is at stake, is the future.
However, Prayuth, days after the Pheu Thai Party, won the election, gave a very “Cool Headed Forward Thinking” statement, that, quote: “My relationship with the Pheu Thai Government, will be based on the legal structure and regulations.”
The current Thai legal structure and regulations, relating to the government’s management and control of the Thai military, gives the Thai military a great deal of independence, when it comes to the internal-power structure of the military-to the military top-brass.
What have transpired, with the current reshuffling, in the very casual and in-formal, underlying culture of Thailand, that often is more real than what the laws and regulations says, however-is that a great deal of the Thai military, indeed, is leaning towards the Pheu Thai Party-in fact, the wheeler and dealers, in the Thai military top brass-are mostly Pheu Thai Party leaning people-and that reach even goes into the “Seven Tigers Gang.”
But the bottom-line, as far as Thai Intel is concerned, is that the Thais, have failed again, to recognize, that the globe is watching what is going on in Thailand. And in Thailand where a coup occurs just so very often, the globe obviously, is watching the Thai military.
The problem, is that the Pacific area, in general, is turning into a risky area, as far as national security is concerned. This type of “Making an Ass for Outsiders to See” in the final analysis, hurts Thailand’s national security position.
It is utterly, insane, for a country, facing rising outside threats, to have to see its Defense Minister, like Thailand’s Defense Minister, making statements, that reach the globe, like he has been making in recent days.
The rumor, is that Yuttasak is just a stop-gap, Defense Minister for Thailand. However, is he the real “Hero” in Thailand’s national security efforts-for having to be the “Cross Road” of the type of power struggle going on in Thailand-and trying to protect everyone? Or is Yutthasak, focused on some “Cloak and Dagger” for himself?
Thai Intel readers be the judge!
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