- By Ranger, Thai Intel’s political journalist
After years of military build-up, along the Thai Cambodian border, days after Yingluck won the election-it was a 180 degree reversal-with Cambodia making the initial pull back in the number of soldiers.
That trend, was met with in kind, by the Thai military-in pulling back Thai solders.
- Today, things are so normal, trade is exploding between the two countries-and one wonders where the soldiers are, and have artillery exchanges between the two countries occurred at all?
But as all the pull back occurs and things is getting back to normal-remain is the future of two Thai spies, rotting away in Cambodia’s prison.
“Cambodia‘s leader is ready to help the release of the two Thais,” said Yingluck, after massive speculation in Thailand, that Yingluck will be able to secure release of the two Thais found guilty of espionage in Cambodia-after she returned to Thailand empty-handed of their release.
- The relationship between Thailand and Cambodia is a complex one.
Ever since, Abhisit, Thailand’s former prime minister, while in the opposition, dragged the Thai Cambodia relationship-into the Thai parliamentary debate, attacking the government for caving in to Cambodia’s interest-and with when Abhisit became the Thai prime minister appointed a Foreign Minister, that called Cambodia’s prime minister, Hun Sen, “A Cheap Thug” relations between the two countries have sunk to the level of open military clashes.
The situation worsened so much, Abhisit, sent a group of Thais, on a secret mission, to go and observe the border area, independent of Thailand national security apparatus knowledge. The group was arrested and charges with espionage.
Currently, of that group of Thais, two remain in Cambodian prison, on espionage verdict, by the Cambodian courts.
- Relations Sour:
The situation, is made more complicated, by Taksin, the former Thai prime minister that was ousted by a the 2006 coup, being a close friend of Hun Sen, and was appointed an “Economic Adviser” of Cambodia. That move, out-raged Abhisit-to the point that Abhisit recalled Thailand’s ambassador to Cambodia.
As the situation worsened, not only trade suffered, but countless 1,000s of both Thai and Cambodians became homeless-depending on the risk of war between the two countries. The situation got so out of hand, ASEAN had to intervene, to make statements-where the conflict finally even reached the World Court.
- The situation between the two countries is still complex.
On the table, is the disputed area at the foot of the Phra Vihear relics, and in the Gulf of Thailand, a rich disputed gas reserves area.
“The negotiation on the gas reserve with Cambodia will be open and transparent,” says Yingluck, today-as the Pheu Thai Party, have requested the Thai Senate, to investigate Abhisit and his security chief, Suthep-for allegations of secret talks with Hun Sen on that gas reserves.
Then as always, the Bangkok centric Thailand, have a nature, to look down on other people and culture-including the Cambodians. And the Cambodians, as a people, do not consider the Thais as their friend. In fact, the anti-Thais feeling, is prevalent.
Hun Sen, undoubtedly, comes close to being in total control of Cambodia, but as Matichon, a newspaper for the intellect here in Thailand, have noted-that Hun Sen, have been heading Cambodia for decades now, as Thailand have had multiple prime ministers-to which Hun Sen must deal with. In fact, Thailand, opposition party, the Democrat Party, have warned Hun Sen, that they could come to power again in Thailand. And Hun Sen himself, also have internal-Cambodia situation to deal with.
Meanwhile, Thailand’s importance to Cambodia, have greatly lessened, apart from Cambodia’s proposal to Thailand for a joint oil and gas development. Vietnam, had taken the advantage of Thailand’s spat with Cambodia-and is emerging as a more important trading partner. Then China, is involved in a struggle with Western powers to gain Cambodia’s interest.
- At the bottom of the heap, lies the future of the two Thai spies.
The spies, themselves, have become a political tool.
The spies are fierce Yellow Shirts, who are fiercely, against the pro-government Red Shirts. Yingluck is trying to reconcile Thailand, therefore, getting their release, will go a long way to prove she is serious-and could, in theory, help ease, the Yellow Shirts attack on her administration.
But there is just a limit how far Yingluck can take the situation-move too closely to Cambodia, and the Thai nationalist will accuse her of selling out Thailand’s interest. Not moving far enough, can see Thailand loosing out to other competitor in the race to gain Cambodia’s interest.
- The Taksin factor:
And what of the two Thai spies-not in very good health, in prison for a long time now-and have asked for help from anyone?
Complicating the matter, the bottom-line, to Thai Cambodia relation, depends also greatly on Taksin-with the latest information is that Taksin is planing a week-long long visit to Cambodia. That visit, is said to be mostly about economic and business advice giving. Taksin, a few years back, when he became Cambodia’s adviser-advise Cambodia to think global.
Since then, Cambodia, have focused most of its efforts on global related businesses. It is not clear, what Taksin will advise Cambodians this time around.
However, that visit, will likely spark an outraged with the Yellow Shirt orientated people in Thailand-and the opposition, is ready to go back to “Square One” in dragging the Thai Cambodia issue, into Parliament debate-for a multiple attack, against the government-for not trying to arrest Taksin and against Thaksin, accusing him of going to Cambodia in trading Thai interest away.
Could Taksin be interested in helping to release the spies?
The following is from DPA:
Cambodia and Thailand agree to demilitarize border zone
Sep 15, 2011, 13:25 GMT
Phnom Penh – Thailand has agreed to a July ruling by the International Court of Justice calling for Thailand and Cambodia to remove troops from a disputed flashpoint zone on their common border, Cambodia said Thursday.
The move came during the visit to Phnom Penh of Thailand’s recently-elected Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra amid expectations of improved relations between the two neighbours.
The disputed zone lies near the 11th century temple of Preah Vihear, one of several areas along the Thai-Cambodian border that saw deadly clashes as recently as April.
The fighting, which took place under the previous Thai government, caused consternation at the 10-member Association of South-East Asian Nations group, of which both countries are members. Indonesia, the ASEAN chair, was forced into a mediating role.
Cambodia’s Information Minister Khieu Kanharith said Thursday’s talks were fruitful.
‘When we talked about the border, (Cambodian) prime minister (Hun Sen) says we have to follow the decision of the ICJ, and also accept the role of the Indonesians,’ Khieu Kanharith said. ‘The Thai prime minister agreed.’
He said the two countries had also agreed to combat cross-border crime, adding that Thailand would send a business delegation to Phnom Penh later in the year to try and boost trade and investment.
Yingluck, whose Pheu Thai party won Thailand’s July ballot, is scheduled to leave Cambodia later Thursday. She has already visited Brunei and Indonesia as part of her regional trip.
Earlier Koy Kuong, a spokesman for Cambodia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said Phnom Penh expected the visit would ‘restore our bilateral relations and cooperation in all fields.’
‘The government led by the Pheu Thai party in Thailand has the same goal as the Royal Government of Cambodia – that we hate war, we don’t like to use violence as a means to solve our problems,’ he said. ‘We love a peaceful solution.’
Relations between Cambodia and Thailand plunged under Yingluck’s predecessor Abhisit Vejjajiva. Abhisit became prime minister in 2008 following the military’s 2006 ousting of Thaksin Shinawatra, who is Yingluck’s brother and the force behind Pheu Thai.
Another area of common interest is the stalled effort to resolve disputes over offshore oil and gas deposits in the 27,000-square-kilometre Overlapping Claims Area.
It has been a decade since the two countries started efforts to reach agreement on carving up revenues from the deposits. However a Cambodian government spokesman said the issue was not discussed Thursday.
The rocky relationship between the countries worsened after Phnom Penh appointed Thaksin as a government adviser in 2009, a post he no longer holds. Thaksin, who has been living in Dubai to avoid a two-year jail term for abuse of power, is due to visit Cambodia on Friday.
However, Phnom Penh has stressed that Thaksin has no authority to negotiate on behalf of the Thai government, adding that he would visit to deliver two speeches, meet his Thai supporters and play golf with Hun Sen.
Related articles
- Trade Intelligence: Yingluck orders Thai Foreign Ministry to probe Abhisit’s secret Thai Cambodia talk on oil & gas development (thaiintelligentnews.wordpress.com)
- Oil & Gas News: Petroleum source says “PTT Exploration” will benefit from Yingluck’s Thai-Cambodian re-conciliation (thaiintelligentnews.wordpress.com)
- Thai PM’s first visit will mend ties: Cambodia (khamerlogue.wordpress.com)
- Political Intelligence: (2) Political Prisoner Thailand on “Banned Books” about Taksin (thaiintelligentnews.wordpress.com)
- Oil & Gas Sector Analysis: How close is Thailand & Cambodia with an agreement in the rich Gulf of Siam reserves? (thaiintelligentnews.wordpress.com)
- Investment Analysis: Time for “Inter-Active Broker?” (thaiintelligentnews.wordpress.com)
- Developmental News: Russian economist “Thailand is a rich country with poor prople” & Yingluck’s people government at a lost (thaiintelligentnews.wordpress.com)
- Transparency News: The politicization of Thai corruption, called “Worse in History” during Abhisit’s government (thaiintelligentnews.wordpress.com)
- Political Intelligence: Chalerm source on “The Litmus Test of The Taksin Issue” (thaiintelligentnews.wordpress.com)
- Breaking Defense Intelligence: Source says Thailand’s “Deep South” command to complete putting “Local” people in command within months (thaiintelligentnews.wordpress.com)
Leave a Comment
No comments yet.
