My Simese cats are full of black and blue bruses
by this blog sprcial contributor G
As a comment to this blog report, let’s have a look and see whether Thailand is a failing state, or even if it has already failed but just not fallen over yet.
According to wikipedia, the conditions which might lead one to describe a country as a failed state are disputed and I am sure there are many who would argue with any description of Thailand as being such. Never-the-less, let’s have a look and see.
Social indicators
1. Demographic pressures: including the pressures deriving from high population density relative to food supply and other life-sustaining resources. The pressure from a population’s settlement patterns and physical settings, including border disputes, ownership or occupancy of land, access to transportation outlets, control of religious or historical sites, and proximity to environmental hazards.
Comment: There is no doubt whatever that Thailand is a polarized society – the rich and the poor are poles apart, so yes there are plenty of demographic pressures. Many people in Thailand are wealthy on a global scale, especially the guy in the bg house, whereas many many more really do not know where the next meal might come from apart from the local ant nest or field (rats, insects, lizards and snakes are often staple fare in parts of Thailand). I would say if the demographic pressures are not yet at failed state level then they will be within 1 year. but it is a personal opinion.
1. Massive movement of refugees and internally displaced peoples: forced uprooting of large communities as a result of random or targeted violence and/or repression, causing food shortages, disease, lack of clean water, land competition, and turmoil that can spiral into larger humanitarian and security problems, both within and between countries.[6]
Comment: The fact that a huge percentage of the population of Isaan have moved to Bangkok or to other provinces where there is paid work (usual manual or domestic) must make Thailand qualify for failed state status in this respect. The pronouncement sat year by a Democrat minister who stated that the welfare of all Isaan people was a concern because if they had problems, where would Bangkok people get their servants and petrol-pump assistants was a very telling if not very educated sentiment. And of course we should not forget the thousands and thousands of Thai women now serving in the sex industry with the full knowledge and concurrence of the elites and police who run or otherwise feed off many of the entertainment venues.
1. Legacy of vengeance-seeking group grievance: based on recent or past injustices, which could date back centuries. Including atrocities committed with impunity against communal groups and/or specific groups singled out by state authorities, or by dominant groups, for persecution or repression. Institutionalized political exclusion. Public scapegoating of groups believed to have acquired wealth, status or power as evidenced in the emergence of “hate” radio, pamphleteering and stereotypical or nationalistic political rhetoric.[7]
Comment: In this respect, the actions of the big house, the judiciary, the army and the government qualify admirably and effortlessly for the failed state label. Look at their vengeance against all things Thaksin… then all things Cambodian all things Hmong, all things Rohingyan, all things southern Islam etc etc. The police, army, yellow shirts, blue shirts etc act with impunity and atrocities are both commonplace and unpunished.
1. Chronic and sustained human flight: both the “brain drain” of professionals, intellectuals and political dissidents and voluntary emigration of “the middle class.” Growth of exile/expat communities are also used as part of this indicator.
Comment: Well, it is frankly hard to make much of a case for this, Ji Ungkaporn is the only intellectual who has fled into exile. Thaksin hardly fits that bill, though perhaps a political dissident. But then Thailand doesn’t have any intellectuals worthy of the term to start with. so who would notice of they don;t have any now. SNAFU.
Economic indicators
5. Uneven economic development along group lines: determined by group-based inequality, or perceived inequality, in education, jobs, and economic status. Also measured by group-based poverty levels, infant mortality rates, education levels.
Comment: Another no-brainer. Isaan, Northern Thailand, Sourhern Thailand. Education disparity, wealth disparity, health disparity, infant mortality. Another tick in the box here.
5. Sharp and/or severe economic decline: measured by a progressive economic decline of the society as a whole (using: per capita income, GNP, debt, child mortality rates, poverty levels, business failures.) A sudden drop in commodity prices, trade revenue, foreign investment or debt payments. Collapse or devaluation of the national currency and a growth of hidden economies, including the drug trade, smuggling, and capital flight. Failure of the state to pay salaries of government employees and armed forces or to meet other financial obligations to its citizens, such as pension payments.
Comment: Well, the whole world has been a bit crazy, but yes, Thailand has been in economic decline, especially since the PAD trick-or-treat at the airport. The signs are not good despite the increasingly bizarre and desperate utterances of the government.
Political indicators
7. Criminalization and/or delegitimisation of the state: endemic corruption or profiteering by ruling elites and resistance to transparency, accountability and political representation. Includes any widespread loss of popular confidence in state institutions and processes.
Comment: Another no-brainer. Where is the investigation of MP’s and Senators whose salary is about 60,000THB per month? Or the police generals who own 50,000,000+ condos? Or the army generals who have huge estates and little holiday shacks neatly carved out of forestry or national park land? Thailand started off being ridiculously corrupt at all echelons of society and is becoming steadily worse under this ridiculous military puppet government. Where is the investigation about the number of former soldiers serving on the boards of state run enterprises? Why? What does digging a latrine qualify you for? Digging bigger and better latrines? Why are there about the same number of General staff in the Thai armed forces as there are in the USA? Where is the investigation? Where is et concern from the big house? What is the opinion of the police force, the judiciary and the bureaucracy among the public? Nobody in the government cares as long as the tea money circulates upwards.
7. Progressive deterioration of public services: a disappearance of basic state functions that serve the people, including failure to protect citizens from terrorism and violence and to provide essential services, such as health, education, sanitation, public transportation. Also using the state apparatus for agencies that serve the ruling elites, such as the security forces, presidential staff, central bank, diplomatic service, customs and collection agencies.
Comment: Another no-brainer. Drive along any Thai road. Investigate the crash of 1997 and see how many government people made a fortune. Unpunished atrocities by the army, fraud, theft and racketeering by the police force, political leaders facing assassination attempts with alleged links to the Armed forces and the big house. It just goes on and on.
7. Widespread violation of human rights: an emergence of authoritarian, dictatorial or military rule in which constitutional and democratic institutions and processes are suspended or manipulated. Outbreaks of politically inspired (as opposed to criminal) violence against innocent civilians. A rising number of political prisoners or dissidents who are denied due process consistent with international norms and practices. Any widespread abuse of legal, political and social rights, including those of individuals, groups or cultural institutions (e.g., harassment of the press, politicization of the judiciary, internal use of military for political ends, public repression of political opponents, religious or cultural persecution.)
Comment: Another no-brainer. Where is the rule of law in Thailand? The law is just another instrument of persecution, discrimination and repression. For those with money, the law is what you want it to be. 3 years ago, a poor lorry driver was sentenced to death for being drunk and killing some bystanders. LAst year a rich man’s son got 10 years (which he hasn’t yet seen) for getting pissed off and driving his birthday present Mercedes into a crowd. Where is the consistent application of law in Thailand, it isnlt even a judicial system which values precedent.
Rule of law? Lese majesty, computer crimes act, endlessly flexible definitions of ’National security’ governments labeling dissenters as ‘traitors’. And don;t forget what happens to human rights lawyers who get arrested by the police. So much for Abhisit’s promise to solve cases. How about the Saudi gem thefts and murders?
7. Security apparatus as ‘state within a state’: an emergence of elite or praetorian guards that operate with impunity. Emergence of state-sponsored or state-supported private militias that terrorize political opponents, suspected “enemies,” or civilians seen to be sympathetic to the opposition. An “army within an army” that serves the interests of the dominant military or political clique. Emergence of rival militias, guerilla forces or private armies in an armed struggle or protracted violent campaigns against state security forces.
Comment: Another no-brainer. Blue shirts, rent-a-mobs, alleged use of intelligence agencies to plan assassinations of deposed duly-elected prime ministers… manipulation of the armed forces command structure to prevent the rise of schisms and factions within the military.
7. Rise of factionalised elites: a fragmentation of ruling elites and state institutions along group lines. Use of aggressive nationalistic rhetoric by ruling elites, especially destructive forms of communal irredentism (e.g., “Greater Serbia”) or communal solidarity.
Comment: Not such a clear case this one, most of the bureaucracies are not fragmented, they are for sale to whatever the government of the day is. Though it was once the case that the police were emasculated for being a hot-bed of Thaksinistas… maybe.
7. Intervention of other states or external factors: military or Para-military engagement in the internal affairs of the state at risk by outside armies, states, identity groups or entities that affect the internal balance of power or resolution of the conflict. Intervention by donors, especially if there is a tendency towards over-dependence on foreign aid or peacekeeping missions.
Comment: PAD, blue-shirts, rent-a-mobs for hire, secret army units etc, though no overt reliance of state aid, except in respect of overseas scholarships for the sons and daughters of the already filthy-rich.
Comment: On balance. I don’t thnk there is any doubt. Thailand may not be a Somalia or a Zimbabwe or a Burma, but it is trying very hard to get there. Thailand is, in my opinion already a failed state and I fear for Thais in the next few years.
Leave a Comment
No comments yet.
Comments RSS TrackBack Identifier URI
