17.02-Showdown looms, by Danny, this blog’s neutral analyst

Chamlong plans to land a knock-out punch on the government on the 23 or 24th of this month

PAD leader Chamlong, says the PAD will make a knock out punch against the government with a massive rally on the 23rd of this month, as the forces of Democracy tells PAD to be patience and wait because Thaksin is coming back to Thailand soon for a “sleep” in the Thai jail.

And as PM Somchai will be away in Peru for the APEC meet from 20-18 of this month, the government is saying it is the job of the house speaker to move Parliament meeting on the 23rd and 24th of this month, to a safe location or not.

This latest move by the PAD, counters its earlier statement that if government press ahead with amending the constitution it will go on an “all out war.” This sudden move opens the Thai politics to a new “confrontational level” as now no one quite knows what the PAD is up to, except it want the government to go.

“This will be the biggest, the last of the last and it will end with a knock out punch on the government without any follow-up punches and if we fail to bring the government down, we will all pack up and go home,” said Chamlong, head of PAD.

The reason Chamlong has to keep repeating that this is the last fight and last big push, is because he had said the exactly same things many many many many times before!

Observers said Chamlong is reacting to a series of continuous bombings of the PAD at the occupied government house, which Chamlong described as “out of hand and out of control.” Early this morning another bomb rocked the occupied government house, killing one and injuring more than a dozen.

Observer also said Chamlong is reacting to take to edge away from the potential planned return to Thailand by Thaksin, who if return, will be taken immediately to jail to  serve a two year jail term. That return is expected to be be as a wild card hitting Thai politics.

PAD major moves comes on the same day its arch enemy, the NorPorChor or red shirt, who are supporters of Thaksin and amending the constitution to be as liberal as possible, are scheduled to hold a major meeting at a temple on the outskirts of Bangkok. At the height of PAD it was able to muster about 60,000 rally goers, however at a recent NorPorChor gathering at a sports stadium, about 100,000 showed up.

On October the 17, of this year, the PAD made an attempt to control the Parliament but was met with strong resistance from police and many PAD supporters, were severely injured and died. The PAD then petitioned the courts and the courts placed a limitation on the police, as far as using forces against the PAD was concerned. It isn’t clear how much leeway the police still have left in confronting this latest PAD move.

There are fear that if the yellow shirt of the PAD becomes uncontrollable, the NorPorChor may step in the help the police quell the PAD down. If that happens, it may give the military the excuse it needs to stage another coup. However, Anupong, the Thai army head, says that the military is ready to assist police in keeping peace on that day. Yet because the Internal Security Command is under a revamp, it will not be able to assist much. And with the PM in Peru, there will be no one to declair a state of emergency, if needed.

“Obviously, with Thaksin in jail, his supporters will be on the move and the move will be to ask why the PAD leadership are allowed to break the law and allowed to illegally occupy the government house-which is a crime much worse that Thaksin’s breaking regulations-and in that case, there will be an immediate call for equal treatment that will likely end in the PAD leadership in jail or Thaksin being pardoned for his crime,” said Kulana, political lecturer at Thammasart, on Thai TV today.

Earlier, a PPP Party MP close to Thaksin, told Thai Rath, a highly respected Thai mass circulated daily, that Chamlong and the PAD should, “just relax because in a few weeks a man and a women will be returning to Thailand and these people who already slept in the tent, will not mind sleeping in Thai jail.” The two are recognized as Thaksin and his former wife, Pojamarn. Thaksin had earlier said he already slept in tents in foreign countries, in escaping Thai laws, and so now he was ready to return to his home land and sleep in jail.

There was no reaction, as of the going on-line, with this story from the PAD leadership, however, it appears that Chamlong will continue to make the move on the government, before his position deteriorates further with the return of Thaksin to Thailand for jail.

Meanwhile, the Thai PM Somchai said he was concerned about the continued bombing of the PAD but with the military police and a key military figure now advising PAD on security, the government was very much left out of the picture as far as helping to protect the PAD.

“We can’t even send in  the police to do the investigating of the bombings and the PAD doesn’t welcome out protection as it will look bad, so now when the PAD tells the press it is the government fault and we are responsible because we are no doing enough, I want to ask you is that fair that they blame us or is it their own fault,” said Somchai, at about 1 pm, according to Thai Rath.

Thai Rath followed up with a story a little later saying that Somchai had made additional comment on the situation saying that:

“If the protest is peaceful and nobody looks for a confrontation and keep it orderly, the protest will not stir up any problems for the country. However, it was up to the speaker of the House to move Parliament meeting on the day of the PAD major offensive or not and has nothing to do with the government.”

Somchai also said that the police was capable to look after the protest and that if the police can’t keep order, it is up to the police to ask for the military to help.

Observers say clearly, the government of Somchai is playing the news with great flexibility, by saying others will make the decisions involved with what occurs on that major PAD offensive day. This is to distance themselves from the event, said Kulana, the Thammasart lecturer.

“If Somchai gets involved in planning, it will fall into the trap of being drawn into the fight, but if the Somchai government just stays like a shadow on that day, the PAD will be punching shadows which will not be a knock out punch of any kind. Like if they grab hold of Parliament, it will be the speaker who is responsible and if the containment of the PAD gets out of hands it will be the police. I am afraid the PAD will not have a target to really hit anymore,” added Kulana.

The Thai society is polarized into three fractions, one neutral and another is the upper crust who wants to keep control of Thailand through the coup’s constitutions and the third is the poor who sees democracy and Thaksin as the way to betterment.

PAD is trying to topple the Somchai government for seeing it as a proxy of its arch enemy Thaksin. PAD is also pushing for “New Politics” which is an extension of the coup draw constitution, that it want to sees most MPs comes from appointment and not elected and thus major media such as the BBC calls PAD un-democratic in nature

The Somchai government wants to amend the coup’s constitution to be more reflective of the people’s wishes, however had said that the amending is the workings of Parliament not the government. PAD maintains it is the governments doings and earlier said when Parliament brings up the issue of amending the constitution, it will go on an “all out war.”

We will keep up-dating this story as new information becomes available…….This is version 2, updated at 1.12 am.