13.54-Rand says you can’t measure all of the benefit scientifically, by Pukky, this blog’s neutral analyst

TDRI says Mobile Phone and Motorcycles Useless to the Poor

RAND says popular method of measuring social program falls short of identifying all the benefits, and may make those keen on scientific method rate social program wrongly.

“I am uncomfortable if you call it populus policy, but I prefer to call it making money available to the grass roots,” said Suchart, the current Thai finance minister-indicating the stigma the word populus policies has in Thailand.

About eight years ago when Thaksin came on the Thai scene with his populus policies, leading academia such as TDRI were quick to point out that social programs such a the village fund, were resulting in the money being spent on wrong things-such as motorcycles and hand phone. And it was a common twist at the time, that many concluded that the village fund was only meant to benefit Taksin’s telecom empire, as it saw hand phone sales increase.

On the opposing side, people in the government tried in vain to explain that there were research-such as a through survey by the marketing firm Ogilvy-to support that while indeed some of the village funds did went to motorcycles and hand phone, most of the village fund indeed went to start businesses and for farm equipments. Yet the image of Thaksin populus today, is still about hand phones and motorcycles.

Yet there were a few independent researchers, quoting studies in other countries-not on populus policies-but on the impact of better communication such as mobile phone and motorcycles, on the poor. And those research were positive. Many of these independent academies, while not receiving much press coverage, confronted TDRI and simply said TDRI was wrong to come out and say mobile phones and motorcycles in the hands of the grass roots were of no or little benefit.

Today, Rand Corporation, the highly respected independent think-tank on global issues, just made a study on the problem of doing the analysis such as TDRI uses in measuring the benefit of social programs.In summary, RAND said that the benefit-cost-analysis or (BCA) when used to measure 39 social programs that were rated a success, still failed to noticed many other benefits associated with the program.

“Many important benefits that accrue from effective social programs are rarely, if ever, monetized….Outcomes valued in BACs of social programs do not consistently capture the full range of societal benefits or costs…….Even when there is a well establish literature for valuing outcomes, the use is not consistent across studies of social programs….Program benefits that extend into the future may be monetized, but uncertainty associated with future projects needs to be recognized,” said the RAND Research called “Valuing Benefits in Benefits-Cost Studies of Social program.”

Indeed many have tried in vain to tell TDRI that for a poor to have a mobile phone, indeed the danger is that it will be used foolishly, but on the other hand the benefits can be substantial. One international study of Mobile phone and motorcycle, in India small town found that with the phone, the poor merchant in the village would use the mobile phone to call several people in the market in the town for price and availability of goods, making his decision to go into the town or not, much better informed. The motorcycle also meant that the time needed for the round trip, that used to take three hours, were cut down to half an hour, saving the villager a great deal of time to do other things, instead of riding the bicycle into town.

There are no benefits from mobile phone and motorcycles to the poor, says TDRI, repeatedly in its attack of Thaksin’t policies.

TDRI is currently making lots of noise about populus policies-like village fund, vs social welfare policies-saying populus policies are wrong but that social welfare program are right. Principally stated, this issue is being discussed today as a political issue that can never quite be decided scientifically anywhere on the planet except at Thailand’s TDRI.

“Clearly populus policies like village fund, is really a capitalist and right wing tool and as clearly social welfare program are socialism oriented policies. There are over lapping but mainly these are issues that have been fought about as an ideology position with about the same amount of scientific study to support the case on either side. For TDRI to come out and take a position in favor of social welfare, it is nothing more than statement of ideology position. Right or wrong, TDRI should not have an ideological position because it must be neutral in its research. To have a position, will impact the research and this is something quality researchers world wide are careful about not doing,” said a social researcher at Chula.

Indeed, one staunch supporter and member of the TRT tried to explain to the Thai press, in countering TDRI’s line of reasoning said that from his own research, in a small village in E-Sarn where a family typically sends to mother to the market on bycycles at 5 in the morning every day, never saw her children goes off to school in the mornig, but with the motorcycle, many were abole to see their children off to school.

“For other programs, however, the main benefits accrue in the domain that are not monetized, which limits the feasibility of employing the benefit-cost methodology. Indeed, only one in five of the interventions we reviewed that focus on mental health support and behavioral modifications of childern and youth has an associated BAC,” says RAND.